Which were the best-performing months of the year? Should I hodl or sell during this bullish run?

As October comes to a close, the crypto market seems to be showing some signs of an uptrend.

Over the past two months, "caution" has almost become the theme of the crypto market, especially after experiencing the October 11th crash. The impact of this crash is slowly fading, and market sentiment seems to have not worsened further but instead gained new hope.

Starting from the latter part of the month, some signals of an uptrend have begun to emerge: positive net inflow data, approval of several altcoin ETFs, and a rise in rate cut expectations.

ETF Funds Flowing Back In, Institutions Rejoining the Market

The most eye-catching data in October comes from ETFs.

The Bitcoin spot ETF has seen a net inflow of $4.21 billion this month, completely reversing the outflow trend of $1.23 billion in September. The asset under management has now reached $178.2 billion, accounting for 6.8% of Bitcoin's total market value. Just in the week from October 20th to 27th, there was a total of $446 million in new capital inflow, with IBIT under BlackRock alone receiving $324 million, and its holdings now exceeding 800,000 BTC.

For the traditional financial market, ETF inflows are the most straightforward bullish indicator—it is more honest than social media hype and more real than candlestick charts.

More importantly, this uptrend truly carries an "institutional flavor." Morgan Stanley has opened BTC and ETH allocations to all wealth management clients; JPMorgan allows institutional clients to use Bitcoin as collateral for loans;

According to the latest data, the average institutional cryptocurrency allocation ratio has risen to 5%, hitting a new high. Moreover, 85% of institutions have stated that they have already allocated or plan to allocate cryptocurrency.

While Ethereum ETFs seem somewhat lackluster compared to Bitcoin spot ETFs. Ethereum has seen a net outflow of $555 million in October, the first consecutive outflow since April this year, with the main outflows coming from Fidelity and ETH funds under BlackRock.

However, this also seems to be a new signal, indicating that funds are rotating, moving from ETH to BTC and SOL, where the upside potential is greater, or perhaps preparing for new ETFs.

A Wave of Altcoin ETFs Has Arrived

On October 28th, the first batch of altcoin ETFs in the U.S. officially launched, covering the projects Solana, Litecoin, and Hedera. Bitwise and Grayscale introduced SOL ETFs, while Canary Capital's LTC and HBAR ETFs were approved for trading on Nasdaq.

But this is just the beginning.

Reportedly, there are currently 155 altcoin ETFs awaiting approval, covering 35 mainstream assets, with a total expected size to surpass the initial inflows of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

If all of these are approved, the market may experience an unprecedented "liquidity shockwave."

Historically, the launch of Bitcoin ETFs has led to accumulated inflows of over $50 billion, and Ethereum ETFs have also brought about a $25 billion increase in assets.

ETFs are not just a financial product, but more like a "gateway for funds." As this gateway expands from BTC and ETH to altcoins like SOL, XRP, LINK, AVAX, and others, the entire market's valuation system will be repriced.

Institutions are showing an increasingly strong interest in crypto assets.

In addition, ProShares is preparing to launch the CoinDesk 20 ETF, tracking 20 assets including BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and more; REX-Osprey's 21-Asset ETF goes further, allowing holders to earn staking rewards for tokens such as ADA, AVAX, NEAR, SEI, TAO, and others.

A Solana-tracking ETF alone has 23 awaiting approval. This dense deployment is almost a public declaration: institutional risk appetite is extending from Bitcoin to the entire DeFi ecosystem.

From a macro perspective, this liquidity expansion has enormous potential. As of October 2025, the total market value of stablecoins worldwide is approaching $300 billion. Once this "liquidity reserve" is activated by ETFs, it will create a powerful fund multiplier effect. Taking the Bitcoin ETF as an example, for every $1 flowing into the ETF, it will ultimately amplify to several times the market value growth.

If the same logic is applied to altcoin ETFs, billions of dollars in new capital could drive another boom in the entire DeFi ecosystem.

The Tailwind of Rate Cuts Bringing in New Liquidity Again

Aside from ETFs, another factor that could change the market situation comes from the ever-discussed macro level.

On October 29, there is a 98.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The market seems to have already digested this expectation in advance, with the US dollar index weakening, risk assets collectively strengthening, and Bitcoin breaking through $114,900.

What does a rate cut mean? It means that funds need to find a new outlet.

In the year 2025, a time when the traditional markets were generally lacking in imagination, crypto became the place that was still "telling a story."

What's even more interesting is that this round of positive news is not only coming from the market but also from policy.

On October 27, the White House nominated Michael Selig as the CFTC Chairman, a former crypto lawyer known for his friendly attitude toward the industry; the SEC also updated the ETP creation mechanism, allowing for in-kind redemption of crypto ETFs, greatly simplifying operations.

On the topic of "regulatory friendliness," the U.S. market is no longer just loosening up but throwing the doors wide open. The government is no longer suppressing innovation but trying to let the crypto industry "exist in compliance."

The on-chain data is also corroborating all of this.

DeFi's Total Value Locked (TVL) grew by 3.48% in October, reaching $157.5 billion. The TVL on the Ethereum chain reached $88.6 billion, a 4% increase; Solana rose by 7%; BSC saw an even more significant increase of 15%. This represents not only a "capital inflow" but also a trust inflow.

In addition, the total value of outstanding Bitcoin futures contracts rose to $53.7 billion, with a positive funding rate indicating the dominance of long positions. Whale wallets are also accumulating, with a large holder purchasing $350 million worth of BTC within 5 hours. In the secondary market, Uniswap's monthly trading volume exceeded $1.61 trillion, Raydium surpassed $200 billion, and the ecosystem's activity continues to rise.

These on-chain metrics constitute the most hardcore bullish evidence: funds are moving, positions are increasing, and trading is heating up.

Why Are Top Analysts Bullish?

Arthur Hayes: The Four-Year Cycle is Dead, Long Live the Liquidity Cycle

In a blog post titled "Long Live the King" on Thursday, Arthur Hayes wrote that while some cryptocurrency traders expect Bitcoin to reach a cycle peak soon and crash next year, he believes this time will be different.

His core argument is that Bitcoin's "four-year cycle" has failed because what truly determines the market is not the "halving" but rather the global liquidity cycle—especially the resonance of U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan monetary policies.

The past three bull and bear cycles seem to have followed the rhythm of a "bull market after halving, with a four-year cycle," but that was just a façade. Hayes believes that this rhythm was established because each cycle happened to occur during a period of significantly expanded balance sheets, ultra-low interest rates, and globally loose credit in the U.S. dollar or Chinese yuan. For example:

2009–2013: Fed's Unlimited QE, China's Massive Lending;

2013–2017: RMB Credit Expansion Drives ICO Craze;

2017–2021: Trump, Biden Era 'Helicopter Money' Brings Liquidity Flood.

And when the credit expansion of these two currencies slowed down, the bull market of Bitcoin also came to an end. In other words, Bitcoin is nothing but a barometer of global currency debasement.

By 2025, this "halving-driven" logic completely collapsed. Because the monetary policies of the US and China have entered a new normal — political pressure demands continued looseness, and liquidity will no longer tighten on a cyclical basis.

The US needs to "run a hot economy" to dilute debt, with Trump pushing for rate cuts and fiscal expansion; China, to combat deflation, is also unleashing credit. Both countries are injecting funds into the market.

Therefore, Hayes's conclusion is: "The four-year cycle is dead. The real cycle is the liquidity cycle. As long as the US and China continue to print money, Bitcoin will continue to rise."

This means that the future of the crypto market is no longer governed by the "halving" schedule but rather by the "direction of the US dollar and the RMB." He concluded with a sentence: "The king is dead, long live the king" — the old cycle has ended, but the new Bitcoin cycle, dominated by liquidity, is just beginning.

Raoul Pal: 5.4-Year Cycle Replaces Traditional 4-Year Cycle

Raoul Pal's 5-year cycle theory represents a fundamental reconstruction of the traditional Bitcoin 4-year halving cycle. He believes that the traditional 4-year cycle is not driven by the Bitcoin protocol itself, but rather the past three cycles (2009-2013, 2013-2017, 2017-2021) coinciding with the global debt refinancing cycle.

The end of these cycles all stemmed from monetary tightening policies, not the halving events themselves.

The key to this theoretical shift lies in the structural change in the average maturity of US debt in 2021-2022. In an environment close to zero interest rates, the US Treasury extended the average weighted maturity of debt from about 4 years to 5.4 years.

This extension not only affects the timeline for debt refinancing but, more importantly, changes the rhythm of global liquidity release, thereby delaying Bitcoin's cyclical peak from the traditional fourth quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, also indicating that the fourth quarter of 2025 will be a bullish market.

In Raoul Pal's view, the global total debt has reached about $300 trillion, with about $10 trillion coming due (mainly US Treasury bonds and corporate bonds), requiring massive liquidity injection to avoid a surge in yields. Each trillion dollars of liquidity added is associated with a 5-10% increase in stocks and cryptocurrencies. For cryptocurrencies, a $10 trillion refinancing could inject $2-3 trillion into risk assets, propelling BTC from a low point of $60,000 in 2024 to above $200,000 by 2026.

Therefore, Pal's model predicts that the second quarter of 2026 will witness an unprecedented liquidity peak. When the ISM surpasses 60, it will trigger Bitcoin to enter the "Banana Zone," with a target price of $200,000 to $450,000.