LUNA Sees 0.12% Increase on Nov 14 Despite Overall 80.35% Yearly Drop

As of November 14, 2025,

saw a modest 0.12% increase over the past day, with its price reaching $0.0814. Despite this slight daily gain, the token has declined 9.75% over the last week and dropped 12.74% in the previous month. On a yearly basis, LUNA remains deep in negative territory, having lost 80.35% since the start of the year. These numbers highlight a brief, volatile recovery within an overall persistent downward trend.

The token’s small daily rise occurred against a backdrop of cautious and uncertain sentiment in the broader market. While there was a minor uptick in the last 24 hours, the monthly and yearly losses continue to reflect a strong bearish trend. Market participants are monitoring whether this short-lived rebound will shift the prevailing outlook or simply offer a temporary pause in the decline.

LUNA’s recent price changes appear to have little direct connection to non-crypto news, such as updates in women’s health, legal proceedings, pharmaceutical research, or market analysis. According to current data, these external events have not had a significant or immediate effect on LUNA’s valuation.

Technical analysis and past volatility patterns indicate that LUNA has been trading within a set range in recent months, with important support and resistance levels shifting in response to overall market trends. The 12.74% decrease over the last month seems to have established a short-term support level that is now being tested. Experts suggest that future price movements will likely be influenced by broader economic factors and possible regulatory changes that could impact sentiment throughout the digital asset market.

Backtest Hypothesis

To understand how the market has historically responded to major declines, a backtesting approach can be utilized. In light of LUNA’s recent 12.74% monthly drop, it is useful to examine how similar assets have performed after experiencing a 10% fall in a single month.

This type of backtest generally involves pinpointing every instance where an asset—such as LUNA or a comparable index—suffered a 10% monthly decline, then tracking its subsequent performance over specific recovery periods, such as 1, 3, 6, or 12 months. This method helps determine average returns, volatility, and typical recovery trends.

For LUNA, the next phase of this analysis would involve defining the precise parameters for the backtest, including:

1. Which asset or group of assets to review—whether focusing on LUNA, a crypto index, or a collection of similar tokens.
2. The historical window—deciding whether to analyze all data from 2022 to 2025 or a shorter, more recent period.
3. Recovery timeframe—determining how long to measure performance after each 10% drop (for example, 1 month or 6 months).
4. Risk management measures, if any—such as implementing stop-losses or setting maximum holding durations to better reflect real trading conditions.

Once these criteria are established, a comprehensive event-driven backtest can be conducted to see if the current price movement is consistent with past patterns following similar declines. The resulting insights can help shape more informed expectations for LUNA’s short-term outlook.