Bitcoin Updates Today: Fed Navigates Uncertainty as December Rate Cut Remains Unclear

The Federal Reserve faces a delicate balancing act over whether to lower rates in December, as market expectations have dropped to about a 52% probability for a 25-basis-point cut—down significantly from 95% just a month earlier.

of a quarter-point decrease in the key rate. This sharp decline in confidence highlights growing disagreements among Fed officials, with persistent inflation and a resilient job market dampening hopes for imminent easing. The possibility of a rate cut, which would move the target range to 3.5%-3.75%, has been thrown into question by comments from influential figures, such as Boston Fed President Susan Collins, who .

Collins, who votes on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), stated that unless there is "significant weakening in the labor market," further rate reductions could jeopardize progress on inflation, which

. Her perspective is shared by an increasing number of "hawks" at the Fed, including St. Louis President Alberto Musalem and Chicago's Austan Goolsbee, who have as inflationary pressures persist. On the other hand, "doves" such as Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller still push for easing to prevent monetary policy from becoming too tight, pointing to slower job and wage growth.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly illustrates the central bank's cautious approach,

and noting that it is "too soon" to make a call on December's decision. Although Daly does not vote this year, she remains an influential voice, emphasizing the importance of gathering more data before acting—a view echoed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who likened the current situation to "driving through fog." The extended U.S. government shutdown, which , has added to the uncertainty, with some reports possibly lost for good.

Market movements have echoed the Fed's lack of clarity. (BTC) and other digital assets have seen their gains limited by the diminished chances of a rate cut, with . Broader financial markets remain highly responsive to the Fed's communications, as investors assess the central bank's ability to manage a delicate employment situation without reigniting inflation.

The upcoming December meeting, set for December 9-10, will challenge the Fed to balance these conflicting objectives. Although holding rates steady appears more probable, policymakers have not dismissed the possibility of a cut, with some

for making a decision. For now, the Fed's cautious stance signals a recognition that the current economic environment— and uneven wage growth—requires a more sophisticated approach to policy.