Institution: The Federal Reserve's interest rate path for the second half of 2026 remains highly uncertain

Jinse Finance reported that T. Rowe Price's Chief U.S. Economist, Blerina Uruci, pointed out in a report that there remains significant uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path in the second half of 2026. "My biggest divergence with the market is in the pricing of rate cut expectations for the first half of 2026. I believe the current market expectations are too dovish," she stated. This depends not only on the evolution of macroeconomic data but also on the reaction mechanism of the new Federal Reserve leadership. Uruci believes that if inflation reaccelerates starting this quarter and economic growth remains robust—as she expects—then the Federal Reserve will not be able to deliver on the market's currently priced-in expectations for further easing next year. She stated that the Federal Reserve may pause its rate-cutting pace after the December meeting. (Golden Ten Data)