CICC: If Hassett Becomes Fed Chair, US Treasury Yields and the Dollar May First Fall Then Rise

ChainCatcher News, according to a research report by CICC, under the baseline scenario, if Hassett becomes the new Federal Reserve Chair, it may cause U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar to first decline and then rise, which would overall be positive for U.S. stocks.

From a timeline perspective, in early 2026, Trump is expected to announce the nomination of a new chair. For Hassett, he would first need to be nominated as a Federal Reserve governor and confirmed by the Senate, then be nominated as chair and confirmed again. After the current chair Powell's term ends in May 2026, Hassett would officially become chair and could begin presiding over the June FOMC meeting at the earliest.

The first quarter of next year will be a key period when the new chair's nomination begins to influence market expectations. If Hassett makes overly dovish statements at that time, there is a possibility that U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could temporarily fall more than expected. However, as long as he does not significantly cross the line to the extent of "losing independence concerns," the realization of expectations combined with the recovery of the U.S. economy may cause Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar to turn upward.