QCP Capital Market Update– 27 Mar 24

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QCP Capital2024/03/27 06:46

By:QCP Capital

– Early numbers are showing positive BTC spot ETF inflows with Fidelity posting strong numbers, giving BTC a nice lift over 70k level.
– The option market is structurally bullish BTC and fearful of ETH downside.
– We see consistent demand for BTC calls >100k out to Dec and large buyers of ETH puts around 2800 for Apr (up to about 20k ETH!).
– This has caused ETH risk reversals to go to -5% to the downside again which was the early signal for the previous dip.

Trade Ideas:
– Spot-Forward Basis remains the lowest hanging fruit given the directional uncertainty.
– It is especially attractive back at these elevated levels >20% for a zero-downside trade.

Indicative run:

|:--------|--------:|-------------:|--------:|

| 26APR24 | 1398.25 | 24.17 | 30 |

| 28JUN24 | 3659.5 | 20.4 | 93 |

| 27SEP24 | 6440.75 | 18.15 | 184 |

| 27DEC24 | 8545.75 | 16.11 | 275 |

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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