Key Notes
- Social sentiment is at its most bearish since the June 22 panic sells.
- Over $40 billion in Open Interest highlights risky leveraged long positions.
- Institutions now hold 1.3 million BTC, steadily absorbing supply.
On August 19, leading cryptocurrency BTC $112 805 24h volatility: 2.2% Market cap: $2.24 T Vol. 24h: $46.60 B slipped below $113,000, triggering fear in the market. The market is currently experiencing the most bearish sentiment seen since June’s geopolitical turmoil.
Yet, while the crowd is bracing for more pain, some argue that history suggests this fear could actually be a buy signal.
Social Sentiment Turns Ultra Bearish
According to on-chain analytics firm Santiment , retail traders have flipped from extreme optimism to sudden profit-taking after Bitcoin’s failure to bounce.
Social sentiment has crashed to levels not seen since June 22, when US airstrikes on Iran sent shockwaves through global markets and triggered a cascade of panic sells.
The chart from Santiment highlights a recurring pattern: when the crowd becomes greedy, prices often correct lower , but when fear dominates, prices usually find a floor and bounce.
Bitcoin positive vs negative sentiment ratio | Source: Santiment
Santiment cited the Bitcoin positive vs negative sentiment ratio chart, suggesting major dates where fear took the market down:
- On June 22, major fear struck the market amid geopolitical tensions, marking an “optimal dip-buy moment” as prices rebounded shortly after.
- On July 9, the crowd’s greed coincided with optimism over tariff easing, pushing Bitcoin higher, but the rally later corrected.
- On August 18, traders piled into dip-buys, expecting a bounce, but the market punished this over-eagerness with another downturn.
- Similarly, on August 19, the crowd gave up, beginning panic selling, a signal that often precedes actual recovery.
Historically, the market tends to move opposite to the crowd’s emotions. For patient investors, this is a buy-the-dip opportunity, as per Sanatiment.
Leverage vs. Institutional Demand
XWIN Research Japan sees a tug-of-war between speculative leverage and institutional demand as Open Interest has surged above $40 billion, nearing record highs, while funding rates remain positive.
It’s clear that traders are heavily positioned long, a setup that leaves the market vulnerable to sudden liquidations if prices slip further. Overcrowded leverage means even a small downward move could spark a cascade of forced selling.
However, institutional flows remain resilient. ETF holdings and corporate treasuries now hold over 1.3 million BTC, steadily absorbing supply and creating a long-term anchor .
The Halving Cycle Factor
Analyst CQ Ben noted that in both of the last two bull markets, Bitcoin showed notable price weakness around 480 days after the halving.
If history repeats, the current pullback could last another 2–4 weeks, with recovery and acceleration into new highs expected by late September to early October, around day 510 post-halving, making BTC one of the best crypto to buy in 2025.
Bitcoin Hyper Attracts Growing Investor Attention
Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER), a next-generation Bitcoin Layer 2 protocol, is gaining momentum with its new technology.
Bitcoin Hyper has been developed to address some of Bitcoin’s well-known limitations, such as slow transaction confirmation times, costly fees, and the lack of native smart contract functionality.
The system routes transactions through a specialized virtual machine for fast and economical processing, before finalizing them on Bitcoin’s base layer to preserve network security.
This dual-approach enables Bitcoin Hyper to provide quick and affordable transactions without compromising Bitcoin’s fundamental robustness.
