XLM drops 13.57% over the past month as technical signals point to stabilization near the $0.30 support level

Over the past month, XLM has declined by 13.57%, reaching $0.3171 as of October 30, 2025. The price has been stabilizing around the $0.30 support area, with technical signals indicating that buyers are starting to challenge important support levels. Both traders and analysts are monitoring this zone closely, as holding above it could mark the beginning of a short-term rebound. The 3.17% drop over the last week points to ongoing bearish sentiment, but also suggests the possibility of a turning point in the current trend.

XLM’s movement within a downward channel has caught the eye of market participants. The coin is trading just above the $0.30 support, while the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) is acting as immediate resistance at $0.356. Accumulation activity is evident between $0.20 and $0.30, with on-chain metrics showing strategic buying in this range. Experts believe this consolidation could set the stage for a breakout attempt toward the $0.38 resistance.

Technical tools like the MACD and RSI are beginning to indicate a shift toward bullish momentum. A recent MACD crossover is being viewed as a possible reversal indicator, and the RSI is starting to diverge from recent price lows, hinting at a decrease in selling pressure. Market watchers are also looking for a decisive move above $0.38, which could confirm a short-term recovery and potentially push prices toward the 50-day EMA or higher.

An important factor in XLM’s recent price behavior is the presence of a falling wedge pattern, which has remained intact for several weeks. This formation is generally seen as bullish if the price breaks above the upper trendline. Analysts have pointed out that

has maintained support at the lower boundary of the wedge, increasing the chances of an upward breakout if the pattern completes. Additionally, the funding rate in derivatives markets has risen, reflecting growing confidence among long traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

One possible backtesting approach for XLM would be to use the $0.30 support as the main entry point, aiming for $0.38 as a target and setting a stop-loss just below $0.28. This method would use the falling wedge as confirmation and rely on RSI divergence as an early sign of a reversal. For those holding through the initial breakout, the 50-day EMA could serve as a secondary target.

The effectiveness of this strategy can be assessed by analyzing historical periods of consolidation that led to significant price rebounds. Important metrics such as trading volume, liquidation heatmaps, and order book depth should also be tracked for further confirmation. Considering XLM’s current technical setup, backtesting with these criteria could provide meaningful insights into the likelihood of a successful short-term trading opportunity.