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Source: OAK Research annual report. 1) The most anticipated events in 2026. - ICO and airdrop of Playmarket, airdrop of BASE, TGE on OpenSea, launch of the MegaETH mainnet #MEGA, AAVE V4 #AAVE and a mobile app (new version of the DeFi lending flagship), Season 3 of Hyperliquid #HYPE (continuation of the rewards program), switching fees in favor of token holders #UNI (fee switch in Uniswap), appointment of a new head of the Federal Reserve, inclusion of crypto ETFs in 401(k) retirement accounts, payments to Mt. Gox creditors (return of ~$9b in BTC). 2) Bitcoin is now a macro asset - 2025 was a transitionary year: BTC ended the year roughly where it started. - The 4-year cycle model no longer works. - BTC's price depends on macroeconomics and ETFs, not retail. - BTC dominance > 60% has sucked liquidity out of altcoins. 3) ETFs and DAT companies – new demand (and threat) - 200+ companies own >1,000,000 BTC (5% of the supply). - ETFs and DATs are the main channels for institutions. - Risk: a compressed premium could collapse the sector. 4) Ethereum: the technology is there, the price isn't - Ethereum's technological progress isn't driving price growth. - The transition to L2 reduced fees and ETH burn, killing the "ultrasound money" narrative. - The Ethereum Foundation reorganized. - The task for 2026 is to explain why to hold ETH. 5) Hyperliquid – winner of the year and symbol of "revenue meta" - The main hero of 2025 in DeFi. $1b+ in annual revenue, a team of 11 people. 99% of revenue is used to buy back #HYPE. - The project has caught up with major CEXs on derivatives. - A model of "AWS for liquidity" is forming. 6) The US legalizes crypto through stablecoins - The passage of the GENIUS Act gave stablecoins clear rules of the game. - Bitcoin is de facto recognized as a strategic reserve asset of the US. - Crypto is no longer a fringe topic and has become part of the financial system. - The downside: the commercialization of politics has intensified (memocoins from politicians, conflicts of interest). 7) Stablecoins – a tool for dollar expansion - #USDT and #USDC control the lion's share of the market. Stablecoin issuers have become one of the largest holders of US government bonds. - Stablecoins are a payment rail/infrastructure for tokenized assets (RWA) and DeFi. 8) RWA: tokenized government bonds – the main case for institutions - Tokenized US Treasury bonds are the most mature and fastest-growing sector of RWA. The market has grown exponentially over the past two years. - Tokenization enables compatibility with DeFi and instant settlements. - The link with TradFi is strengthening – systemic shocks will be transmitted faster. 9) Prediction markets have gone mainstream - Polymarket and Kalshi are a duopoly. Volumes have reached tens of billions. - The launch of tokens in 2026 is the main test of sustainability. 10) L2: harsh selection - Capital is concentrating with leaders (Base, Arbitrum). - Most L2s are losing TVL, activity, and token prices. - The problem is that tokens don't capture value. - The future lies in convenience and integration, not new networks. 11) Airdrops: the classic model is dead - Most tokens after an airdrop have lost 70-90% of their value. - Retroactive giveaways attract hunters, not real users, and destroy ecosystems. - Projects are moving to profit sharing, ICO mechanics, or abandoning tokens altogether. 12) Narratives for 2026: Privacy and Crypto + AI - Interest in private transactions and privacy infrastructure is returning. - The focus has shifted from tokenization models to markets for AI computation, verification, and coordination. Crypto is useful to AI as a layer for settlements, trust, and automated payments. Bittensor (#TAO) is the most mature ecosystem at the intersection of crypto and AI.

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