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While XRP’s price action remains frustratingly range-bound below $1.95 as of January 28, 2026, the derivatives market is flashing signals that historically precede a sharp trend reversal. A deep deleveraging phase has seen XRP’s open interest on major exchanges like Binance plummet from $1.76 billion to under $500 million, effectively flushing out excess speculative leverage. With funding rates turning slightly negative meaning short sellers are now paying long positions the market has created a "coiled spring" effect. If XRP can reclaim the $2.00 psychological level, it could ignite a cascade of short liquidations, potentially turning the current price stall into a violent 11% to 15% recovery rally. The Deleveraging Reset: A Foundation for Recovery The massive contraction in open interest is being viewed by analysts as a "healthy reset" of the market’s internal structure. Cleaning the Slate: Open interest has dropped significantly since the October 2025 market crash. This reduction in leverage means that the current price action is driven more by spot demand than by speculative "paper" trading. The Opportunity: Historically, when open interest falls below its semi-annual average while prices are at a local bottom, it marks a period of "exhaustion" for sellers. Once new buyer interest returns to the futures market, the lack of overhead leverage allows for much more explosive upward moves. Short Crowding and Negative Funding Rates Current positioning on perpetual contracts suggests that the "bears" may have overextended their welcome. The Sentiment Flip: For the first time in weeks, funding rates at specific venues have dipped into negative territory. This imbalance indicates that a late consensus of short-sellers has formed, betting on further declines. The Squeeze Catalyst: In a "crowded short" environment, even a minor positive price move can force traders to buy back XRP to close their positions. This forced buying creates a feedback loop or short squeeze that can rapidly propel the price past heavy resistance zones. Technical Inflection: Reclaiming the $2.00 Barrier Despite the bullish derivative setup, XRP remains trapped within a descending wedge pattern that requires a high-volume breakout to confirm a reversal. The Resistance Wall: XRP is currently hovering near $1.91. To activate the bullish squeeze, it must first reclaim $1.99–$2.00. A sustained close above this level would likely trigger the "bear trap" and target the next major liquidity zone at $2.21. The Risk Zone: On the downside, the $1.85 level remains the ultimate line in the sand. A break below this support would invalidate the bullish derivative signals and potentially lead to a capitulation event toward $1.65. IV. Essential Financial Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Derivative signals, such as open interest contraction and negative funding rates, are probabilistic indicators as of January 28, 2026, and do not guarantee a price recovery. Leveraged trading involves extreme risk, and short squeezes can be preceded by further "wick-downs" that liquidate long positions before a reversal occurs. XRP remains a highly volatile asset subject to broad market and regulatory shifts. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in the cryptocurrency market. Do you think the $500M open interest floor is the ultimate signal for an XRP comeback, or will the $2.00 resistance hold firm?

$XRP multi-timeframe analysis for XRP/USDT. 1. 4H Chart - Identify Direction (Primary Trend) Analysis: The higher timeframe structure is bearish. Price is trading well below the 4H BOLL midline (1.9977) and has failed to reclaim it as support. The last significant lower high on this timeframe is at 2.4169 (2025-12-12). The most recent lower high is at 2.1626 (01-20). The RSI(6) at 40.3872 shows bearish momentum is dominant, though not yet oversold. Verdict: Primary Trend is DOWN. The path of least resistance is toward the 4H Bollinger Lower Band at 1.8102. 2. 1H Chart - Identify Liquidity High and Low Analysis: This timeframe shows the recent consolidation and potential liquidity pools. · Liquidity High (Sell-Stop Cluster): The swing high at 1.9459 is a key level. A break above this could trigger short stops and target the next liquidity zone near the 1H UB at 1.9266. · Liquidity Low (Buy-Stop Cluster): The immediate swing low at 1.8678 is the most recent. A break below this level is crucial, as it would target the 1.8741 - 1.8716 zone (24h low & 1H LB), where buy stops are likely clustered. Verdict: Key liquidity zones are above 1.9459 and below 1.8678. A break of 1.8678 is the more probable path aligned with the 4H downtrend. 3. 15M Chart - Identify Break of Structure / Change of Character Analysis: The 15m chart shows a bearish structure within the consolidation. · Bearish Break of Structure (BOS): The move from 1.9936 down to 1.8246 established the downtrend. The subsequent pullback peaked at 1.8974 (current price zone), which is now acting as resistance. · Change of Character (ChoCH) - Bullish Signal Needed: For a meaningful bullish reversal, price needs to break and hold above the 15m BOLL midline at 1.8922, then form a higher low and break above the recent high at 1.9049. Current RSI(6) at 47.9957 is neutral, offering no divergence yet. Verdict: No bullish ChoCH confirmed. The structure remains bearish. A break below the local low of 1.8741 (24h low) would be a fresh Bearish BOS, opening the path to 1.8419 (15m LB). 4. 5M Chart - Trade Plan Execution Current Price: ~ 1.8984 Bias: SELL (Aligned with 4H trend, targeting 1H liquidity low). Trade Plan: 1. Ideal Entry: A pullback towards the 5m resistance zone 1.9049 - 1.9128 (previous high & 5m BOLL midline). Watch for rejection (bearish price action like pin bars). 2. Aggressive Entry: A break and close below the 1.8908 support level (from 5m chart), with a target on the 1.8741 liquidity zone. 3. Stop Loss: Place above the recent swing high. For a pullback entry, stop above 1.9264. For a breakdown entry, stop above 1.9049. 4. Profit Targets: · TP1: 1.8741 (24h Low / Initial Liquidity Pool) · TP2: 1.86 / 1.8678 (5m low & 1H swing low - Major Liquidity Pool). · TP3: 1.8419 (15m Lower Band - Structural Target) 5. Invalidation: A sustained break and close above 1.9266 (1H UB) would invalidate the immediate bearish thesis, suggesting a stronger move towards the 1H liquidity high at 1.9459. Risk Note: The 5m RSI(6) is at 25.1319, indicating the move down is short-term oversold. A brief corrective pullback is possible before further downside. Wait for the price action confirmation at key levels before entering.$XRP

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⚖️ AT THE EDGE: CRITICAL SUPPORT LEVELS THAT WILL DEFINE XRP’S NEXT MAJOR TREND XRP has reached a pivotal technical crossroads as of January 26, 2026, following a sharp weekend downturn that pushed the asset as low as $1.81.