FOMC Meeting on October 28-29, 2025: Will the Fed’s Next Move Ignite a Crypto Rally?

The crypto market is once again at a crossroads as global investors turn their attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s October 28-29, 2025, FOMC meeting. After more than a year of economic turbulence and monetary recalibration, the Fed’s decision on whether to lower interest rates carries implications far beyond Wall Street. For crypto investors, it could mark a pivotal moment in the ongoing tug-of-war between inflation control and liquidity-driven asset growth. With Bitcoin holding firm above $110,000 and DeFi platforms showing early signs of renewed activity, the stage is set for either a breakout or a reset—depending on the Fed’s tone.

What makes this meeting especially complex is the lack of fresh government data, due to a protracted federal shutdown that’s left the Fed partially in the dark. Still, most market participants expect a 25-basis-point rate cut—the second in as many meetings—as the central bank shifts from containment to caution. But it’s not just the rate decision that matters; it’s the signal. Will the Fed telegraph a dovish path into 2026, or adopt a “wait and see” stance? This article breaks down the macro backdrop, the latest FOMC clues, and what it could all mean for crypto markets in the weeks ahead.

Overview of the FOMC Meeting and Rate Outlook

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convened on October 28–29, 2025, with markets widely anticipating a second consecutive rate cut. The Fed delivered as expected, lowering its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. This move follows the first rate reduction in over a year, which came in September, and reflects growing concern over softening labor conditions despite inflation appearing to gradually cool.

Leading into the meeting, futures markets priced in a 97% probability of a rate cut, suggesting the decision was largely priced into risk assets. However, market attention quickly shifted to the Fed’s post-meeting statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, which emphasized that future rate decisions will remain data-dependent, especially with core inflation still hovering around 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target.

Notably, the Fed did not release updated economic projections (the next Summary of Economic Projections is due in December), leaving analysts to interpret Powell’s tone for clues on the trajectory ahead. While Powell acknowledged improvements in inflation trends, he pointed to uncertainties in the job market and financial conditions as rationale for maintaining a “gradual and flexible” approach to easing. For crypto traders, that nuance is key: it suggests the Fed is committed to easing—but not blindly committed—leaving the door open to both more cuts or a pause depending on how the data evolves.

Current Macro Conditions and Fed Strategy

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Fed’s decision to continue cutting rates comes against a backdrop of mixed economic signals. On the inflation front, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data—albeit patchy due to the ongoing federal government shutdown—suggests that headline inflation has slowed to around 3.0% year-over-year, with core inflation easing slightly to similar levels. Powell and other Fed officials have repeatedly emphasized that while inflation remains above target, the current disinflationary trend is encouraging, particularly given the temporary inflationary impact of new import tariffs and elevated energy prices.

United States Unemployment Rate

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The bigger concern for the Fed is the labor market. After staying historically tight through early 2025, job creation has slowed significantly, and unemployment has edged up to 4.3%, from 4.0% earlier in the year. Businesses are hiring more cautiously, and the tightening of immigration policy has further constrained labor supply. Compounding the problem, the prolonged federal shutdown has created a data blackout—the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been unable to publish key labor and inflation reports, leaving the Fed with limited visibility into current conditions. Powell acknowledged this uncertainty, describing it as “flying blind,” but insisted that alternative indicators confirm the broader trends.

In response, the Fed is adopting a risk-management approach—easing policy proactively to prevent a deeper slowdown. This mindset also appears to extend to quantitative tightening (QT). While no formal announcement was made, several Fed officials have hinted that the ongoing balance sheet runoff may end soon. Liquidity conditions in short-term funding markets are already showing signs of stress, and the Fed has historically moved quickly to stabilize such dynamics. Many market participants now expect an announcement by year-end to pause QT, which would mark a further pivot away from 2022–2023’s aggressive tightening cycle.

All told, the Fed’s evolving strategy reflects a subtle but significant shift: it is no longer purely focused on curbing inflation, but rather on balancing inflation moderation with rising economic fragility. For crypto investors, this shift toward a more accommodative stance could translate into a more supportive macro environment—especially if paired with an end to liquidity tightening.

Wall Street and Crypto Hold Their Breath Before the Cut

Heading into the October 28-29 FOMC meeting, both traditional and crypto markets displayed a mix of anticipation and restraint. In equities, investor optimism drove major U.S. indices to fresh highs. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones each posted multiple record closes in the week prior, lifted by strong tech earnings and growing confidence in the Fed’s dovish turn. Traders largely viewed a rate cut as a given, and momentum built on the belief that easier financial conditions could continue through year-end.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Source: CNBC

Meanwhile, bond markets responded accordingly. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreated to around 4.0%, down from cycle highs earlier in the year, indicating expectations of a sustained easing path. At the same time, gold prices surged to new records, touching $4,030/oz, as investors positioned defensively in anticipation of softer monetary policy and rising liquidity—a combination that historically benefits both gold and crypto.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Source: CoinmarketCap

The crypto market, however, took a more cautious route. Bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $113,000, stabilizing after a sharp pullback earlier in the month. That “October flush” wiped out over $1 billion in leveraged positions, prompting many traders to reduce exposure and wait for macro clarity. Liquidity across major crypto exchanges declined, with order book depth dropping to roughly 40% of its normal level. This thinning market signaled that even bullish investors were taking a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Fed’s announcement.

Despite short-term hesitation, institutional confidence in crypto remained firm. Bitcoin ETFs continued to register net inflows, and large asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity saw steady demand for their crypto-linked products. This suggests that long-term investors are positioning for favorable macro tailwinds—even if short-term traders remain wary of volatility around the Fed event. On the corporate front, however, caution crept in: firms like MicroStrategy slowed their BTC accumulation, and some crypto treasury holders reportedly trimmed positions to lock in gains or manage liquidity risk.

How the Fed’s Move Could Shape the Crypto Landscape

With the Fed delivering the expected 25-basis-point cut, crypto markets have shifted their focus from what the Fed did to what it means going forward. The rate cut itself—bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%—was priced in. What matters now is the tone and direction signaled by Chair Powell and the FOMC.

Here’s how each major scenario could impact the crypto market:

● Dovish Continuation (Bullish for Crypto): If the Fed reinforces its easing trajectory—with Powell highlighting confidence in inflation control and hinting at further cuts in December or early 2026—this would likely boost crypto markets. A weaker dollar, falling yields, and expectations of sustained liquidity would historically support Bitcoin, altcoins, and DeFi tokens. An additional tailwind would be any confirmation that the Fed is preparing to pause or end quantitative tightening (QT).

● Dovish but Cautious (Neutral to Mildly Bearish): In this middle-ground outcome, the Fed cuts rates but offers no strong forward guidance—emphasizing data dependency and potential risks. Powell may sound noncommittal or emphasize the need for more labor market clarity, especially with the ongoing government data blackout. In this case, crypto could see sideways movement or modest corrections, especially if traders interpret the message as indecisive. A “sell-the-news” dip is also possible after recent rallies.

● Hawkish Pause or Surprise Messaging (Bearish for Crypto): While this didn’t occur at the October meeting, it remains a risk for future decisions. If the Fed had paused or issued a statement expressing concern about lingering inflation or liquidity excesses, risk assets would have likely pulled back. For crypto, that could mean renewed pressure on Bitcoin and a reset in bullish momentum. This scenario would likely trigger dollar strength, rising bond yields, and lower investor appetite for volatile assets.

While the Fed’s move helps anchor expectations, the real crypto impact depends on whether the market sees this as the beginning of a sustained dovish cycle—or just a tactical adjustment.

After the Fed: 5 Things That Will Shape Crypto’s Next Move

Now that the Fed has made its move, the path ahead for crypto will depend on how macro conditions evolve and how markets interpret the signals. For investors navigating this moment, here are five key factors to watch:

1. December FOMC Meeting (Next Cut?)

The Fed’s next policy decision lands on December 9–10, 2025. A third straight rate cut is widely expected, but that could shift with new data. If inflation stays contained and labor market softness continues, the Fed may reinforce its dovish path. However, signs of economic reacceleration could lead to a more cautious stance and stall momentum for risk assets like crypto.

2. Inflation and Employment Data

When the federal shutdown ends, a wave of delayed data—CPI, PCE, payrolls, wage growth—will flood in. These metrics will guide the Fed’s December messaging. Softer inflation and rising unemployment would support further easing and benefit crypto. But if inflation surprises to the upside, it could delay future cuts and reintroduce market volatility.

3. QT Policy and Liquidity Conditions

The Fed’s balance sheet strategy remains in focus. A formal pause or end to quantitative tightening (QT) would add liquidity to the system, typically bullish for Bitcoin and other digital assets. However, if QT continues longer than expected, it could drain liquidity and tighten financial conditions, creating headwinds for crypto valuations.

4. Geopolitical and Regulatory Developments

Beyond U.S. monetary policy, global dynamics remain influential. Trade tensions—particularly between the U.S. and China—can affect investor sentiment broadly. At the same time, crypto regulation is still evolving. News around ETF approvals, digital asset taxation, or stablecoin policy could shift capital quickly and reshape sector momentum.

5. Market Structure: ETF Flows and Institutional Demand

ETF inflows remain a strong proxy for institutional appetite. Continued net inflows to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs suggest long-term confidence—even when spot markets remain volatile. If flows dry up or reverse, it may reflect caution at the top end of the market and lead to broader pullbacks.

Conclusion

The October 28-29, 2025 FOMC meeting confirmed what many in the crypto space had anticipated: the Fed is pivoting cautiously toward easing, but it’s not throwing caution to the wind. A second straight rate cut signals growing concern over a slowing labor market and tightening financial conditions, even as inflation trends remain encouraging. While this shift bodes well for risk assets, the Fed's messaging made clear that future moves will be driven by incoming data—not by market expectations alone.

For crypto investors, that means staying sharp. A more accommodative Fed can unlock liquidity, fuel momentum, and strengthen bullish narratives across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and DeFi. But the market’s response will depend on how convincingly the Fed maintains that dovish course. With macro uncertainty still in play and regulation looming in the background, this is a moment to be both optimistic and disciplined—watching the signals, not just the price.