アルトコインシーズン指数

In November 2025, the cryptocurrency market is under pressure, with Bitcoin struggling and posting noticeable losses. However, against this bearish backdrop, XRP price stands out as comparatively robust. While Bitcoin’s sustained downtrend has weighed on the sentiments of many digital assets, XRP price has gained 1.4% over the last week. This divergence is catching the attention of investors looking for altcoins capable of outperforming the broader market during times of uncertainty. A combination of factors is fueling optimism for XRP price. This article will examine why XRP price is outperforming under current market conditions by analyzing whale accumulation trends, diminishing selling pressure, historic on-chain indicators, the upcoming lineup of XRP ETFs, and key technical signals. Source: CoinMarketCap Exchange Reserves Plunge as Whales Accumulate One of the most important on-chain signals driving the positive outlook for XRP price is the drastic reduction in XRP held on major centralized exchanges. According to data from XRPWallets, some major centralized cryptocurrency exchanges’ reserve of XRP has plummeted by 90%. The platform now sits at just 14.85 million XRP—about $44.6 million in value. This dramatic outflow is a clear sign that large institutional holders and whales are moving their XRP to private wallets. Source: Glassnode Such strategic moves off exchanges strongly suggest that whales anticipate future gains, possibly timed with major catalysts like ETF launches. Historically, when the supply of a cryptocurrency dwindles on exchanges, it sets the stage for sharp volatility and upward movement if demand resurfaces. For XRP price, this means limited sell pressure remains, and any renewal in buyer enthusiasm could cause a swift rally from current levels. Dormancy Flow and Historical Reversal Signals for XRP Price Technical analysts are also closely watching XRP’s Dormancy Flow, a unique on-chain metric that measures how long coins remain untouched before being moved. This indicator recently plunged to historically low levels. In previous cycles, such scenarios marked the bottom of bearish periods and preceded significant upside for XRP price. To give context, a similar dip in Dormancy Flow was a prelude to XRP’s monumental surge in early 2017. The trend repeated between late 2020 and early 2021, when despite broader market fear, XRP price staged an impressive recovery. Even in the aftermath of the regulatory events in mid-2023, a Dormancy Flow drop aligned with a sharp, brief upward move. Now, with Dormancy Flow reaching new lows, it’s clear that long-term XRP holders—sometimes referred to as “smart money”—are maintaining their positions rather than selling into the weakness. This lock-up signals a phase of accumulation, which historically is a strong precursor for major reversals and rallies in XRP price. Diminishing Selling Pressure and Changing Holder Behavior Supporting the bullish case for XRP price is the ongoing reduction in selling pressure from long-term holders. On-chain data reveals that, at the start of November, the top 1% of wallets held approximately 87.729% of all XRP in circulation. By mid-November, that ratio slid marginally to 87.714%, reflecting minimal net selling. Of even greater significance is the reduction in actual selling volume. In early November, large holders released over 282 million XRP to the market on a weekly basis. By mid-month, this figure fell sharply to about 63 million—a dramatic 78% drop according to The Coin Republic. This kind of decline in selling often means that the capitulation phase is ending, less XRP is being offered for sale, and the groundwork is set for a possible price rebound. Additionally, the slowing sales from key wallets further tighten XRP’s available supply, increasing the likelihood that any positive catalyst—such as an ETF launch or overall market improvement—could have an exaggerated effect on xrp price. ETF Launches Shape Trading Outlook for XRP Price One of the clearest drivers on the horizon for XRP price comes from the pending launch of several XRP-focused exchange-traded funds. The ETF rollout began with Canary Capital’s window opening on November 13. Franklin Templeton started its launch window from November 14 to 18, followed by 21Shares’ timeline between November 20 and 22. These ETF events are watched closely by the market, as they consistently bring greater attention and additional trading volume both before and after listing. For XRP price, the anticipation of institutional demand—and new capital flows—raises expectations for volatility and possible upside. If previous ETF launches in other crypto assets are any guide, XRP price could benefit from a period of increased buying interest as these products go live. Technical Analysis: Chart Signals Suggest a Short Bounce May Be Imminent Chart analysis underscores a potential for upward movement in XRP price. Between November 9 and 16, XRP’s spot price marked a new short-term low, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) simultaneously carved out a higher low. This bullish divergence, where price momentum weakens on declines, frequently precedes rebounds in the short term. From a technical standpoint, key resistance levels for XRP price are $2.31 and $2.38. Should XRP price achieve a daily close above $2.31, a drive to test $2.38 could follow next. A move beyond $2.58 would significantly strengthen the bullish case, signaling a transition to a new upward phase. On the downside, renewed weakness dragging XRP price below $2.10 could result in a drop to the $1.87 support level. As it stands, current technical signals and underlying market structure give XRP a reasonable chance for a near-term bounce. Conclusion: Can XRP Price Outperform as Bitcoin Lags? The convergence of diminishing selling pressure, strategic whale accumulation, historic Dormancy Flow signals, and high-profile ETF launches uniquely positions XRP price for a potential rally—even as Bitcoin remains under intense selling pressure. The culmination of these factors indicates that the worst of the sell-off may be over for XRP, making it an altcoin to watch for renewed upside momentum. While the near-term outlook is encouraging, investors should carefully monitor XRP price as ETF events unfold and remain alert to broader shifts in crypto sentiment. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are for informational purposes only. This article does not constitute an endorsement of any of the products and services discussed or investment, financial, or trading advice. Qualified professionals should be consulted prior to making financial decisions.

The crypto market entered November 2025 with cautious optimism—Bitcoin was hovering above $120,000, Ethereum had reclaimed the $4,000 level, and total crypto market capitalization had briefly touched $4.3 trillion in early October. But just weeks later, optimism gave way to panic. By mid-November, Bitcoin had plunged to around $95,000, while Ethereum slid below $3,200. Roughly $1 trillion in market value was erased in a matter of days, triggering alarm across retail and institutional desks alike. Altcoins fared even worse. Coins like Solana, Cardano, and Avalanche saw double-digit percentage drops in just 48 hours, while meme coins and low-liquidity tokens collapsed entirely. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index crashed into “Extreme Fear,” and liquidations soared as leveraged long positions were wiped out. But this wasn’t just another flash crash—it was a complex, macro-driven sell-off that caught many investors off guard. In this article, we unpack what triggered the November 2025 meltdown and what it means for the road ahead. Crypto vs. the Fed: How Interest Rate Shifts Tanked the Market While crypto markets often follow their own rhythm, November’s downturn was undeniably tied to broader macroeconomic developments. At the heart of the storm was the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone. Early in the month, investors were still pricing in a potential rate cut before year-end. But by mid-November, sentiment had shifted dramatically. The probability of a December cut dropped below 40%, with Fed officials warning that inflation remained “uncomfortably persistent.” Kansas City Fed President J. Randall Schmid stated outright that it was “too early” to consider easing, and other central banks echoed similar caution. This shift hit risk assets hard. Treasury yields spiked, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and tech stocks dipped—conditions that have historically pressured Bitcoin and other digital assets. As one analyst put it, “Crypto isn’t trading like a hedge anymore. It’s trading like the Nasdaq with leverage.” Bitcoin dropped roughly 10% following the Fed’s updated guidance, and the broader crypto market followed. Even positive developments like the end of the U.S. government shutdown on November 12 failed to lift sentiment, echoing a similar price decline seen after a shutdown in 2019. The macro message was clear: high rates weren’t going away soon, and crypto would have to adjust. The Leverage Effect: How Margin Trading Worsened the Crypto Crash Once the sell-off began, crypto’s high-risk leverage culture poured fuel on the fire. On November 16, over $617 million worth of crypto positions were liquidated in just 24 hours — one of the largest liquidation days of the year. More than $240 million came from long Bitcoin positions and another $169 million from long Ethereum trades, according to CoinGlass. These weren’t voluntary exits — they were margin calls, forced liquidations triggered as prices dipped and collateral evaporated. This liquidation cascade set off a self-reinforcing spiral. As traders were wiped out, more sell orders hit the market, pushing prices even lower. A similar flash crash back in October had already erased $19 billion in market cap, but the November environment was more fragile. Volatility was high, liquidity was thin, and investor confidence was shaky. Spot Bitcoin ETFs — a key source of institutional demand — flipped from strength to weakness. On November 11, they saw $524 million in net inflows. By November 12, that reversed into a $278 million outflow. Without institutional buyers to catch the fall, margin-driven selling overwhelmed the market. Crypto Fear & Greed Index Hits 10: A Signal of Capitulation or More Pain Ahead? Amid the November 2025 sell-off, investor sentiment collapsed at breakneck speed. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a widely tracked metric that gauges market emotions, plunged to 10 on November 13 — deep into “Extreme Fear” territory. It was the lowest reading since the March 2020 COVID market crash, and it reflected a complete shift in mood from the optimism seen just weeks earlier. Historically, such low sentiment scores can signal market capitulation — the moment when fear peaks and selling exhausts itself. But real-time reactions are rarely that clean. Instead of prompting buyers to jump in, the fearful environment kept traders on the sidelines. Crypto Twitter turned defensive, “buy the dip” memes vanished, and long-term holders began showing signs of stress. With Bitcoin sliding to around $95,000 and altcoins bleeding faster, many investors chose to de-risk rather than catch falling knives. Whether this was the bottom or just a midpoint in a deeper correction remained the central question on everyone’s mind. Institutional Flows and ETFs: When the Big Money Stepped Back As retail sentiment crumbled, institutional investors didn’t step in to stabilize the market—in fact, many joined the exit. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, once hailed as a gateway for traditional capital, saw a sharp reversal in flows during the first half of November. On November 11, these funds recorded $524 million in net inflows, signaling strong institutional interest. But just 24 hours later, that trend flipped. By November 12, net outflows totaled $278 million, and on November 13 alone, ETF redemptions surged to $870 million, according to CryptoSlate and BitMEX Research. This withdrawal of large-scale capital acted like pulling the rug out from under Bitcoin. Institutional players often serve as “smart money” support during volatile stretches, but their retreat left a vacuum. Analysts tied the reversal to a deteriorating macro backdrop—particularly concerns over a weak Treasury auction and hawkish Fed commentary. Without ETF demand to absorb excess supply, price pressure accelerated. Moreover, institutional outflows weren’t limited to Bitcoin alone; multi-asset crypto funds and Ethereum-based products also saw negative flows, underlining a broader shift in risk appetite across the asset class. Technical Indicators and Chart Signals: Death Crosses and Breakdown Zones While macro and sentiment factors grabbed headlines, technical indicators had been flashing warnings well before the sell-off hit full steam. By mid-November, Bitcoin had officially entered bear market territory, falling more than 20% from its recent high above $125,000. One of the most closely watched signals—the “death cross”, where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day—was forming rapidly. Historically viewed as a bearish omen, this would mark Bitcoin’s fourth death cross of the current cycle. BTC: Technical Pricing Models Source: CoinDesk Interestingly, in past instances—around $25K, $49K, and $75K—each death cross coincided with local bottoms rather than extended downturns. But this time, the broader setup felt more fragile. Bitcoin was struggling to hold the $94,000–$100,000 support zone, with analysts warning that a clean break below could lead to deeper retracements. Ethereum, too, had dropped to around $3,100, slipping below key moving averages. Other chart-based indicators—like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Bollinger Bands—also pointed to heightened volatility and oversold conditions, while on-chain metrics signaled weakening holder confidence. In short, the charts didn’t just reflect the sell-off—they helped fuel it. Altcoins and Market-Wide Impact: A Broad-Based Breakdown While Bitcoin led the headlines, the damage across the rest of the crypto market was even more severe. By mid-November, the total crypto market capitalization had fallen from over $4.3 trillion in early October to around $3.27 trillion, marking a loss of more than $1 trillion in just over a month. Blue-chip altcoins—like Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Avalanche—faced double-digit drawdowns, some shedding 30–40% from their recent highs. Ethereum alone dropped to the $3,100 range, off nearly 36% from its 2025 peak. Solana and Cardano suffered steep daily losses exceeding 12% during the height of the crash. Even tokens previously seen as “resilient”—such as BNB or XRP—were pulled into the sell-off. Meme coins like DOGE and PEPE, which had rallied earlier in the year, collapsed dramatically, with PEPE down roughly 80% year-to-date. Analysts observed that as liquidity evaporated, capital rotated into Bitcoin as a relative safe haven, causing altcoin-BTC pairs to deteriorate rapidly. The result was a broad-based capitulation, where very few assets—if any—were spared. What Comes Next for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins? With the dust still settling, investors are now asking the most important question: was this the bottom—or just the beginning of a deeper decline? Much depends on the broader macro picture. All eyes are on the upcoming December Federal Reserve meeting, which could confirm or further delay anticipated rate cuts. If policymakers remain hawkish, crypto may struggle to regain upward momentum in the near term. On the other hand, any dovish pivot or softer inflation data could ease pressure on risk assets and spark a relief rally. Technical and behavioral indicators will also be critical. If Bitcoin can hold the $94K–$100K support range, it may offer the base for consolidation. Continued ETF flow monitoring will help gauge institutional appetite—sustained inflows could restore confidence, while persistent outflows may suggest deeper fragility. Investors should also keep an eye on on-chain metrics like exchange reserves, funding rates, and realized losses, which can signal when capitulation truly gives way to accumulation. For now, the November crash serves as a stark reminder: crypto doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Macro forces, sentiment, and structure all matter—and being prepared for volatility is the price of admission. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are for informational purposes only. This article does not constitute an endorsement of any of the products and services discussed or investment, financial, or trading advice. Qualified professionals should be consulted prior to making financial decisions.

Nasdaq has issued an official listing notice for a spot XRP ETF (source), marking one of the biggest milestones for the altcoin market in years. Until now, only Bitcoin and Ethereum had made it into the ETF arena. XRP becoming the next asset to receive an institutional investment vehicle signals a major shift in how traditional finance views the rest of the crypto market. This is more than a headline. It reshapes expectations for liquidity, regulation, and the future of large-cap altcoins. For Bitget users, it may open new opportunities across the market. You can trade XRP directly on Bitget Spot. Why an XRP ETF Matters A spot ETF gives institutional investors a regulated way to gain exposure to an asset, similar to the structures used for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. With XRP joining this category, it shows that traditional finance sees long term demand that goes beyond the two biggest assets. Key reasons this matters: Institutional access expands: Funds that are restricted from holding crypto directly can now enter XRP through a compliant structure. Liquidity improves: ETFs often drive higher demand and deeper markets. Market recognition increases: Major exchanges do not list ETFs for assets they consider uncertain. This approval signals that XRP has moved into the same conversation as Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of legitimacy. What It Means for the Altcoin Market The biggest takeaway is that the ETF era is no longer limited to Bitcoin and Ethereum. If XRP can reach this milestone, other large caps may follow. Assets like SOL, and ADA have previously been discussed in ETF contexts. This creates a few possible ripple effects: Altcoin credibility rises: Traditional investors may begin exploring other large projects. Regulatory clarity improves: If one altcoin receives ETF approval, it sets informal expectations for future approvals. Stronger separation between top projects and the rest: Large caps with real use cases may benefit most. For traders, this highlights the importance of watching project fundamentals and real adoption. The market is shifting toward assets that institutions consider viable long term. What It Means for Bitget Traders On Bitget, XRP has been one of the most traded assets, and an ETF listing can influence price action, volatility, and liquidity. Here is what Bitget traders should watch: Short term volatility: ETF news often causes fast swings as traders position for inflows. Long term support: Institutional access tends to stabilize price movement over time. Sector rotation: Some traders may shift interest from meme tokens to large caps with growing credibility. This is also a reminder that the market is rewarding tokens with strong narratives and recognizable utility. The Bigger Picture XRP becoming an ETF asset shows how quickly the crypto landscape is changing. The line between traditional finance and digital assets is becoming smaller, and institutions are expanding beyond the two biggest names. For users on Bitget, this trend reinforces that crypto is entering a more mature phase driven by adoption rather than speculation. More ETFs may come. More altcoins may enter the spotlight. And traders who understand these shifts will be better positioned to take advantage of them.