Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting: Acknowledge the end of the rate hike cycle, but did not confirm the timing of a rate cut

According to a tweet by Twitter user @qinbafrank: The minutes of the January meeting of the Federal Reserve, released early this morning, summarized three key points.
Firstly, at the January meeting, Federal Reserve officials generally believed that policy rates had peaked but were cautious about whether to cut interest rates. Most officials were more concerned about the risks of rapid rate cuts, with only a few worried about the potential impact on the economy of maintaining high rates for an extended period.

Additionally, participants generally hoped to see more evidence of inflation easing and expressed certain concerns about the repeated process of inflation decline. Finally, regarding balance sheet reduction, Federal Reserve officials supported slowing down the pace of reduction. Many officials believe that there should be further discussions on slowing down balance sheet reduction in March.

In summary, the Federal Reserve acknowledges the end of its rate-hiking cycle but has not yet confirmed when it will begin cutting rates. Between waiting for further data to confirm inflation easing and immediately taking rate-cutting measures, the Fed has temporarily chosen the former. Past CPI/PPI data also indicate that inflation decline is not smooth sailing and decisions on rate cuts will not come easily. The market is gradually adjusting to delays in overly strong expectations for rate cuts being pushed back further. Without a significant rebound in inflation, it is difficult for the Fed to have motivation to raise rates further; currently, actions by the Fed and market expectations are temporarily in a state of weak equilibrium.