Matrixport: The rise of Bitcoin has just begun, the halving event is not the peak of the cycle

Matrixport released a new report stating that halving events have never been the peak of the cycle, and Bitcoin's rebound may have just begun.

 

Although the halving is imminent (April 19/20, 2024), it has never been at the top of the cycle. On the contrary, halving means that mining rewards are cut in half, and we're only halfway through Bitcoin's bull market. Indeed, leverage is high now but even in short term, upward momentum could continue. We are currently in a hot bitcoin bull market; what matters most now is to maintain exposure (long positions) until this wave of growth eventually collapses under its parabolic trend.

 

The cryptocurrency market is perfectly symmetrical with prices seemingly following a simulatable and predictable mathematical pattern. Overbought conditions during crypto bull markets often last longer than traders anticipate and when prices should pull back overbought signals tend to attract more buyers rather than mean reversion which results in parabolic price increases.

 

Our forecast is based on parallel simulations between changes in Tether's market value and Bitcoin prices. According to our model on Tether’s impact on Bitcoin prices, we estimate an inflow of $10-200 billion into ETFs could significantly affect Bitcoin’s price. Specifically, for every additional $50 billion inflow we estimate a 15% increase in bitcoin price.

 

It’s estimated that since mid-January 2024 spot ETFs attracted $6 billion new capital into bitcoin while gold ETFs saw outflows of $3 billion indicating asset allocation shifts might still be early stage. Another driving factor was Lunar New Year effect which has worked perfectly since 2015 contributing +10% towards total February gains of +40%.

 

Based on our historical cycle analysis despite excessive position accumulation and funding rate growth there might still be room for further upside potential for bitcoin as when it gets overbought its price tends to rise higher; halvings have never been the peak of the cycle. On the contrary, a rebound might have just begun.