Greeks.live: The options IV due on November 8th is significantly higher than other terms, indicating a severe lack of investor confidence

Greeks.live analyst Adam released the crypto market outlook for this week (September 2 to September 8).

On Monday (September 2), the U.S. stock market will be closed for a day.

On Wednesday (September 4), the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision.

Thursday (September 5) will see three important data releases: The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S., U.S. August ADP employment numbers, and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on economic conditions.

Friday (September 6) is the most important day of this week, with announcements on U.S. unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll data for August, along with speeches by Federal Reserve officials.

The current market expects a 70% probability of a cut by 25 basis points and a 30% chance of a cut by 50 basis points. If there is significant economic pressure this month, there indeed exists possibility for a reduction by up to 50Bp. The cryptocurrency market currently appears weak; September has traditionally been poor performing month, and this year seems no exception. Ethereum (ETH) has performed weakest with Gas fees hitting an all-time low at just .6 Gwei. ETH's weakness has persisted since later half of this year without any signs of improvement yet seen.
In terms of options markets, investor confidence is severely lacking; implied volatility remains relatively stable across all maturities while medium-to-long term continues to slightly decline and short-to-medium term slightly rebounds.

It’s worth noting that options expiring on November 8 have significantly higher implied volatility than other maturities. Given ETH's current performance, investors may consider bearish ratio spreads or cross-currency short strategies.