61% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September
According to the CME ‘Fed Watch’: the probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September is 61.0%, and the probability of cutting rates by 50 basis points is 39.0%. The probability that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points by November is 48.5%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 43.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is 8.0%.
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