Standard Chartered: Bitcoin has a 12% increase potential before the U.S. election

In a new study, Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, estimates that Bitcoin could reach $73,800 before the US presidential election in November, a 12% increase from its current level. To support this point, Kendrick cites the changing pattern of Bitcoin's multiple with MicroStrategy stock (stock multiple = total assets ÷ total common stock). MicroStrategy is known for hoarding large amounts of Bitcoin and its reserves recently reached 252 thousand coins. After trading synchronously with the price of Bitcoin (green line) throughout 2024, the MicroStrategy stock multiple (blue line) has exploded.

Kendrick states that two fundamental factors causing this premium may drive up bitcoin prices and over time their gap will narrow. The first factor is last month's news that BNY Mellon received an exemption from Staff Accounting Bulletin No.121 (SAB 121), an unwelcome legislation forcing traders to list held cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets. Relaxation of regulation is often considered favorable for bitcoin. Secondly, the exemption from SAB 121 closely relates to MicroStrategy's announcement aiming to become a "Bitcoin bank", which plans to offer Bitcoin capital market tools in future. Kendrick predicts that future exemptions might allow the company to earn revenue by lending out bitcoins.