Is Bitcoin’s Bullish Trend Under Threat from Rising Long Positions?

Key Points

• Bitcoin’s long liquidation cluster is exerting downward pressure, confirmed by a negative MACD histogram.
• Decreased volatility and significant liquidation clusters suggest possible end to the current downtrend.

Bitcoin [BTC] is experiencing downward pressure due to a large long liquidation cluster below the current price.

The MACD histogram turning negative confirms this increased downward momentum, indicating a shift to the downside.

Signs of Sustained Selling Pressure

The divergence signals sustained selling pressure for BTC, reinforced by the bearish crossover of the MACD line.

The RSI is at 43.21, indicating neutral territory, but nearing the oversold region. If the RSI dips further, it could suggest weakening bullish sentiment and potential further declines.

The combined negative signal from the MACD histogram and RSI suggests that unless BTC shows signs of a reversal soon, bearish action could be expected in the short term.

Liquidation Sweep Potential

An analysis of the liquidation heat map showed a significant concentration of long positions below the current price level, exerting downward pressure on BTC.

As these positions unwind, the potential for a liquidation sweep increases. If BTC’s price continues to dip, more long liquidations could be activated, accelerating the downward movement.

BTC’s volatility showed a noticeable drop in recent weeks, with a volatility level of 24.8%. Decreasing volatility often signals the exhaustion of selling pressure, particularly after sustained declines.

The current low volatility, combined with a significant liquidation cluster, suggests that the market could be nearing the end of the current downtrend.

Analyzing BTC’s CME Futures market revealed an imbalance between long and short positions, reflecting a potential overleveraged market.

If the current trend continues, it could lead to forced liquidations and a downward price movement.

The aggregated order book delta showed strong liquidity around the $94,000 mark, indicating significant interest from traders.

As BTC approaches this level, any break below could trigger an influx of sell orders, reinforcing the downward momentum.

However, the recent liquidity buildup suggests that the price could experience a temporary bounce if it holds above this level.

This consolidation of buy and sell orders could play a crucial role in determining whether BTC can maintain support or face further downward pressure.

If the market stabilizes and liquidations subside, a potential rebound could be on the horizon, especially if long positions are reduced and market sentiment improves.