Economist warns of a recession: Will Bitcoin and altcoins crash or rise?
Bitcoin and most altcoins have bounced back slightly this week, with total crypto market capitalization approaching the $3 trillion mark.
Bitcoin (BTC) remained stuck above $86,000, while meme coins like Pepe (PEPE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Floki (FLOKI) soared by double digits this week.
Mark Zandi, one of the top economists in the U.S. and Chief Economist at Moody’s, has warned that the country may be heading toward a recession.
In a post on X, Zandi said that his top recession indicator was “flashing bright yellow,” signaling a potential downturn in 2025. He pointed to a sharp drop in consumer confidence—down 17 points over the past three months.
His number one recession indicator happens when confidence drops 20 points over three months. He argues that consumers stop spending when this happens, leading to a recession. A technical recession happens when the US economy contracts for two consecutive quarters.
FYI, consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board is down 17 points over the past 3 months. Remember my #1 recession watch indicator is that if confidence falls by 20 points over 3 months, consumers stop spending and recession ensues about 6 months later. This…
— Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) March 25, 2025
Bitcoin and altcoins would do well in a recession
A recession is a bad period for any economy as the unemployment rate rises and businesses close.
However, history shows that risky assets do well during a major downturn. For example, US stocks embarked on a decade-long bull run after the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.
Most recently, after initially falling, stocks and cryptocurrencies embarked on a strong bull run. Bitcoin surged from $4,000 in March 2020 to $69,000 in November 2021. Similarly, Ethereum jumped from a low of $80 to $4,940 in the same period.
This rebound was driven by the Federal Reserve, which has a long history of intervening during downturns through rate cuts and quantitative easing.
Risk assets tend to perform well when the Fed lowers interest rates, as cheaper capital encourages risk-on sentiment across markets. If a recession occurs, as Zandi warns, Bitcoin and other altcoins may benefit from such a macro backdrop.
At the same time, Bitcoin and other altcoins may do well if the US avoids a recession. That’s because this recession would be self-inflicted by Donald Trump’s tariffs. As such, his ending or scaling down his tariffs would also push investors back to risky assets.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
VIPBitget VIP Weekly Research Insights
Stablecoins have recently emerged as a key focus for central banks and financial institutions, with the potential to reshape global payment systems and financial infrastructure. According to data from Chainalysis, stablecoins have surged to a monthly trading volume of trillions of dollars, accounting for 60% to 80% of total cryptocurrency trading volume. This explosive growth has attracted significant attention from traditional financial players, who are accelerating their integration into the digital economy by issuing stablecoins, contributing to blockchain network development, and offering related financial services. In the U.S., financial giants such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are exploring the potential of jointly issuing stablecoins. At the same time, regulatory discussions surrounding stablecoins and the proposed GENIUS Act are gaining significant momentum in mainstream media. In the Web2 world, traditional companies like Stripe have entered the space by acquiring Bridge to build out stablecoin payment capabilities. Meanwhile, Circle has emerged as one of the most influential crypto firms in the U.S. stock market, second only to Coinbase, driven by the success of its USDC stablecoin. In the DeFi space, Yield-Bearing Stablecoins (YBS) are drawing substantial capital inflows with their innovative interest-generating mechanisms.

VIPBitget VIP Weekly Research Insights
Real World Assets (RWAs) bring real-world financial instruments such as bonds, real estate, and credit onto the blockchain, enabling tokenization, programmability, and global accessibility of traditional financial assets. With U.S. interest rates peaking, monetary policy turning dovish, and ETFs paving the way for institutional capital to enter the crypto space, RWAs have emerged as a leading theme capturing growing institutional attention.

VIPBitget VIP Weekly Research Insights
The Base chain has recently seen several major strategic developments: Coinbase has integrated DEX routing for Base on its main app, bridging the gap between CeFi and DeFi liquidity; Shopify has partnered with Base to expand real-world applications and user access points. At the same time, Circle and Coinbase stocks have surged by over 700% and 50% respectively, creating a wealth effect that may spill over into the Base ecosystem—boosting both its TVL and token prices. Recommended projects include: 1) AERO (Aerodrome)—The leading DEX on Base, showing strength despite market downturns; well-positioned to benefit from Coinbase integration. 2) BRETT—A flagship memecoin on Base with over 840,000 holders; likely to lead the next Base memecoin rally. 3) New tokens on Bitget Onchain—Offer early access to emerging Base memecoins while helping users avoid high-risk tokens.

Trending news
MoreCrypto prices
More








