Tariffs Likely to Have Maximum Impact on U.S. Economic Growth in Second Half of the Year

Citi's Chief Economist Hitz said on Tuesday that due to the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump on other trading partners, the probability of a recession in the U.S. economy is between 40% to 45%. Hitz expects U.S. GDP to grow in the second quarter, primarily driven by consumers rushing to purchase goods before tariffs take effect. He stated that the maximum impact on U.S. economic growth is expected to appear in the second half of this year. “Tariffs are a stagflationary shock to the U.S. economy,” Hitz said.