Key Notes
- The XRP community is eagerly awaiting a major update in the Ripple vs SEC lawsuit on August 15.
- One X user stated that the probability for a settlement is 70-90%, citing that the potential settlement would involve a $50 million penalty and no injunction.
- Marc Fagel disagrees because those criteria do not exist in current settlement terms.
After almost five years, members of the XRP XRP $3.19 24h volatility: 9.3% Market cap: $190.10 B Vol. 24h: $9.93 B community expect the Ripple Labs’ lawsuit with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to end on August 15.
While hopes are high, the outcome remains uncertain, and it’s unclear whether the court will rule in favor of Ripple.
A former SEC lawyer, Marc Fagel, appears to be very specific about how the event will unfold.
XRP Lawsuit Community Expectation for August 15 Heighten
As the August 15 deadline for the Ripple vs SEC status report approaches, the XRP community is eagerly waiting for a major update. On this day, both the US SEC and Ripple must submit their status reports. One X user, Mark Paul, believes a settlement could be reached by this deadline.
Ripple vs. SEC: 70-90% chance of settlement by Aug 15, 2025, with $50M penalty & no injunction. Appeals paused, but Judge Torres’ rejections add hurdles. Awaiting SEC status report. #XRP #RippleSEC
— Markpaul (@markpaul87) July 22, 2025
The X user went ahead to add a probability of 70-90% to his prediction, citing that the potential settlement would involve a $50 million penalty and no injunction. This aligns with Ripple’s appeal to the $125 million penalty levy initially requested by the Commission.
However, the regulatory agency has proposed reducing the monetary penalty to $50 million.
It seeks to have the court lift the injunction that Judge Torres imposed on Ripple in August. This injunction prevented Ripple from selling XRP to US-based institutional participants.
To this end, both entities wrote a joint status report to the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. In the document, the SEC and Ripple asked that the court hold off on filed appeals.
Marc Fagel Argues Against $50 Million Penalty and No Injunction
Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel disagrees with the prediction made by the X user. Instead, he explained the reality behind the XRP lawsuit, positing that the possibility of a slashed penalty and “no injunction” is nonexistent.
The lawyer pointed out that the court has already made a ruling on this matter.
The odds of a $50m penalty and no injunction are 0%. The court has already resolved that. Sorry.
— Marc Fagel (@Marc_Fagel) July 22, 2025
“The odds of a $50m penalty and no injunction are 0%. The court has already resolved that. Sorry,” said Marc Fagel.
Similarly, popular lawyer Bill Morgan does not anticipate a conclusion to the lawsuit, unless both parties agree on an indicative ruling, which they have both requested from Judge Torres.
Morgan says this ruling will guide both parties in taking the following steps to resolve the lawsuit.
If the indicative ruling is granted, both parties can then file a motion with the Court of Appeals. They would be asking for a limited remand.
Once the motion for the remand is granted, Judge Torres would be left with no option but to grant the relief agreed upon by the parties, an important step toward finalizing the dispute.
Unfortunately, she has already rejected the motion for an indicative ruling. Because of this, the $125 million penalty and injunction remain in effect, backing Fagel’s argument. In the end, the Ripple vs SEC lawsuit settlement may take longer than many expect.
