JPMorgan analysts expressed doubts about the projected growth of the stablecoin market cap to $2 trillion by 2028, noting that the infrastructure supporting stablecoins is underdeveloped for such expansion, and their share in global money flows is less than 1%.
Investment bank JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the realism of the forecast for the global stablecoin market to reach $2 trillion, a figure widely discussed amid U.S. legislative initiatives. According to the bank’s analysts, this estimate is overly optimistic given the current immaturity of the infrastructure underpinning stablecoin circulation. Bloomberg reported on JPMorgan’s analytical note.
The $2 trillion forecast, voiced in June by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during Senate hearings, implies nearly an eightfold increase from the current market capitalization of about $260 billion. However, JPMorgan’s note indicates that such rapid growth in the coming years is unlikely.
JPMorgan analysts consider it improbable that the market will expand so substantially in the short term because the stablecoin ecosystem and infrastructure remain underdeveloped and will require time to mature. They also emphasize that although interest in these assets is growing, the rate of adoption is likely to be slower than expected.
JPMorgan further points out that despite growing attention to stablecoins, their share of global money flows remains below 1%, indicating limited influence on the international financial system. Despite their popularity in cross-border payments and bypassing traditional payment networks, stablecoin use in the real economy remains fragmented, with over 60% of the market concentrated in two assets, USDT and USDC.
Skepticism also extends to the potential participation of institutional and retail investors using stablecoins as an alternative to fiat money. According to the report, such participants are unlikely to actively use payment stablecoins in the near term, given a conservative approach to liquidity management.
Last week, the GENIUS Act was signed into law, formally establishing rules for U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins for the first time. The law requires issuers to hold 100% reserves in government bonds or similar instruments under regulatory oversight. Bessent called such assets a key factor in future demand for the U.S. dollar and U.S. government debt. However, even with the new regulatory framework, JPMorgan believes the real growth potential in the coming years remains limited.
