The Bitcoin beast ain’t roaring right now. It’s more like a cat curled up on your windowsill, purring soft.
Volatility, the heartbeat of Bitcoin’s price swings, has crashed down to 70%, flirting with lows we haven’t seen since late 2023, when Bitcoin was sitting in the sub-$30K neighborhood. That was a bottom, a quiet before the storm. But what now?
On vacation?
Bitcoin’s market activity is cooling off hard. Maybe it’s the summer. Maybe it’s not. And what’s volatility at 70% mean?
Quarterly (3-month) realized volatility has dropped to 70%. This is close to historical minimums, but slightly above the local bottom of 62% that occurred on September 23, 2023 at a price of $26K. With the arrival of big money Bitcoin has become slow. The maximum realized…
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) July 28, 2025
It means price swings are shrinking, tighter than your boss’s budget at year-end. Historically, when Bitcoin chills like this, it’s usually playing the long game before a big move, up or down, unfortunately no one knows exactly.
But don’t get cozy, the volatility peak this cycle was only 143%, way less than the 236% spike back in 2021. The market’s losing its craziness, settling into a new mood.
As I write this, Bitcoin’s trading at about $118,500 with a modest daily gain around half a percent. Not exactly fireworks.
But though the price is hanging tough, the on-chain action looks like a ghost town.
Transactions dropped to 188,000, network growth is crawling at just over 72,000, Santiment says this is the lowest in weeks.
Sounds like people are losing their crypto cool. No new wallets opening, no frenzied buying. Like everyone’s left the office early, leaving the snacks untouched. As I said, maybe it’s summer, and they’re indeed left.
Overvalued
And what about price vs. usage? The Network Value to Transactions ratio, the NVT hit 412. Okay, nice, but what this means?
Experts say this is a red flag signaling the market might be overvalued. Imagine a fancy restaurant that’s empty, lots of shine, but not much action.
Bitcoin’s market cap is outpacing real use on the blockchain, a classic sign of a price top.
But hey, past spikes like this have bounced back when transaction volume picks up, so there’s hope it’s just a short blip.
Stock-to-flow?
Then comes the scarcity myth, Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow ratio also plunged. That’s a big deal, challenging the idea that Bitcoin’s rarity drives its value.
Some say the old stock-to-flow song might be losing its tune post-halving, others see it as a signal to stack up early. Either way, it’s shaking up the narrative
So here we stand, at a quiet crossroads. Low volatility, fading on-chain action, mixed signals everywhere.
History says these quiet spells often build tension before a big break, think of it like the calm before the game-winning shot.
