- Bitcoin is showing signs of a bottom pattern that may push the price higher if it crosses $115K soon.
- Traders are focused on the 200-day average as BTC continues to test the $112.8K line for strong support.
- If BTC confirms the reversal with volume and a breakout then $117K could become the next main level.
Bitcoin is currently trading near its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) after failing to maintain strength above $117,000 earlier this week. The recent decline places BTC at a crucial technical juncture, with analysts observing signs of a possible bump-and-run reversal bottom pattern forming. If confirmed, this classic chart setup could offer renewed bullish potential in the short to mid-term.
Technical Setup Mirrors Bulkowski’s Reversal Bottom Playbook
The chart comparison highlights key similarities with the bump-and-run reversal bottom (BARR) described in Thomas Bulkowski’s chart pattern encyclopedia. According to Bulkowski’s definition, the BARR bottom is a bullish reversal pattern that begins with excessive speculation or steep downtrends—referred to as the “bump.” The pattern is typically followed by a more stable base formation before the price breaks upward.
In the current chart, Bitcoin’s price shows an initial sharp drop below the 200-day SMA, forming a clear “bump” structure. This is followed by a period of stabilization where price reclaims and retests the moving average. Technical traders have identified two distinct touchpoints circled on the chart, indicating potential support validation during this correction.
The price is now consolidating below $112,800 while moving within Bollinger Bands, suggesting suppressed volatility. Historically, such compression phases precede stronger directional moves. If BTC breaks above the 200-day SMA with convincing volume, the next resistance may form near $117,000.
Moving Averages Offer Mixed Short-Term Signals
Bitcoin’s price currently interacts with multiple moving averages, adding complexity to short-term forecasts. The 200-day SMA near $112,800 is under pressure following a recent bearish crossover with shorter-term moving averages. Meanwhile, the 21 EMA and 50 EMA continue to trail beneath the price, suggesting possible near-term resistance.
Traders are watching closely for a breakout above the 200-day SMA, which often acts as a pivot zone for long-term momentum shifts. A confirmed close above this level may indicate early signs of trend reversal, especially if accompanied by increased volume. Historically, a reclaim of the 200-day SMA after rejection signals renewed buyer interest.
However, caution is warranted as repeated tests of the SMA can weaken its strength as support or resistance. The failure to maintain levels above $115,000 last week illustrates how quickly momentum can shift in the current market. Until a decisive close above $117,000 occurs, bearish pressure may remain intact
Can Bitcoin Trigger a Bullish Reversal From This Pattern?
The key question now centers on whether the current structure will fulfill the final stage of the bump-and-run pattern. Bulkowski’s research suggests this pattern can perform well during market bottoms if the base is clearly formed and followed by upward breakouts.
Price action is showing early confluence, but the move must hold above the 200-day SMA and pierce the $115,000-$117,000 resistance range. Failure to do so could invalidate the setup and prompt retests of lower support zones near $110,000. Analysts will monitor volume, volatility, and moving average alignment for confirmation.
Traders are reminded that the pattern’s success rate depends on strict criteria, including slope of the bump, volume decline during consolidation, and breakout confirmation. In this case, price structure, volatility squeeze, and moving average convergence are aligning with the core attributes of the reversal pattern. Will Bitcoin complete the reversal or extend its range-bound correction?
