Harvard economist says his $100 Bitcoin prediction was a wrong call

Key Takeaways

• Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff admitted his 2018 prediction that Bitcoin would fall to $100 was incorrect.
• Rogoff underestimated Bitcoin's global utility and the regulatory environment around cryptocurrencies.

In 2018, Kenneth Rogoff said Bitcoin was more likely to sink to $100 than ever reach $100,000 over a decade.

The Harvard economist, who previously argued that Bitcoin’s use was primarily limited to illicit activities, on Tuesday admitted that he had made a wrong call.

“What did I miss? I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation; why would policymakers want to facilitate tax evasion and illegal activities?” Rogoff explained how he miscalculated.

The former IMF chief economist added that he underestimated Bitcoin’s role as a transaction medium in the $20 trillion underground economy and didn’t foresee regulators, including top officials, openly holding large crypto holdings despite clear conflicts of interest.

“I did not appreciate how Bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transaction medium of choice in the twenty-trillion dollar global underground economy.”

In a 2018 interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Rogoff anticipated that a global regulatory crackdown on Bitcoin would drive prices down and expected limited adoption as a real payment method.

“I think Bitcoin will be worth a tiny fraction of what it is now if we’re headed out 10 years from now,” he said. “I would see $100 as being a lot more likely than $100,000 ten years from now.”

Bitcoin was trading at around $11,242 when Rogoff made his call. Instead of collapsing to $100, the digital asset has surged past $100,000 in under a decade.

At press time, Bitcoin was changing hands above $113,200, up about 907% since Rogoff’s bearish prediction, according to TradingView.