Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Quiet Transformation: Why It's No Longer Just a Wild Ride

JPMorgan has asserted that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued in comparison to gold, citing a marked decline in its volatility to historic lows. According to a recent research report from the firm, Bitcoin's six-month volatility has dropped from nearly 60% at the start of 2025 to approximately 30%, the lowest level recorded. The volatility ratio between Bitcoin and gold has narrowed to 2.0, indicating that Bitcoin is now only twice as volatile as gold, a shift that has not been observed historically [1]. This volatility reduction has made Bitcoin increasingly attractive for institutional portfolios, aligning it more closely with gold on a risk-adjusted basis [4].

On a volatility-adjusted framework, the report suggests that Bitcoin's market capitalization would need to rise by approximately 13% to match the $5 trillion in private investment in gold. This would imply a price of roughly $126,000 per Bitcoin, leaving it undervalued by around $16,000 relative to gold [1]. The analysis underscores the potential for further price appreciation, as institutional investors may find it easier to allocate capital to Bitcoin given its reduced risk profile compared to earlier periods [4].

One of the primary drivers of Bitcoin's declining volatility, according to JPMorgan , is the increasing accumulation by corporate treasuries. These entities now hold more than 6% of Bitcoin's total supply, a trend that is likened to central bank quantitative easing, which historically reduced market volatility by locking assets into balance sheets [2]. The report also highlights the role of index inclusion in drawing passive inflows into equities with Bitcoin exposure, further contributing to price stability. For example, companies such as Metaplanet have been upgraded to mid-cap categories and added to global benchmarks, enhancing institutional interest in Bitcoin-linked assets [1].

Analysts at JPMorgan, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, attribute the volatility compression to both a more stable holder base and structural market developments. These include a growing presence of corporate treasuries and increasing inclusion in equity indices, which together reduce daily price swings and lower the risk associated with Bitcoin investments [3]. The firm’s volatility-adjusted model suggests that the current price of Bitcoin does not fully reflect its reduced risk profile when compared to gold. This, in turn, implies that the asset may be trading at a discount relative to its fair value on a risk-adjusted basis.

The implications of this analysis extend beyond immediate price projections. Industry commentators have taken note of JPMorgan's findings, with some arguing that Bitcoin may eventually reach parity with gold in terms of market value. While JPMorgan has not projected such an outcome, the firm's analysts have emphasized that the volatility-adjusted framework supports the idea that Bitcoin could command a higher valuation as it continues to mature as an asset class [2]. The report does not speculate on when such a scenario might occur but notes that the conditions are in place for Bitcoin to justify a higher price relative to gold.

As corporate treasuries and institutional investors continue to adopt Bitcoin, the asset’s volatility is expected to further decline, reinforcing its appeal in diversified portfolios. JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that the current undervaluation is a function of both reduced risk and structural market developments, providing a compelling case for investors seeking long-term exposure to a digital asset with growing institutional support [5].

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