U.S. Treasury bulls face a dual test from inflation and nonfarm payroll revisions this week
Jinse Finance reported that US Treasury bulls will face a dual test of inflation and non-farm payroll revisions this week. The yields on 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds closed last week at their lowest levels since early April. Traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and expect further cuts before the end of the year. This week's focus will begin on Tuesday, when the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its preliminary benchmark revision to the 2025 non-farm employment survey data. Whether the market can continue this month's rally will partly depend on the tone of the PPI and CPI, which will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Traders will also be watching how the market absorbs the auctions of 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bonds. Leslie Falconio, Head of Fixed Income Strategy at UBS, said, "The pace of rate cuts this year will slow down and be orderly, and the data-dependent narrative will continue. The likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September is very small. Even if inflation data comes in below market expectations, we will not see them take such aggressive action." (Golden Ten Data)
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