AI Models Flag Rising Volatility Risk for Bitcoin as September Unfolds

Quick Breakdown: 

• Bitcoin trades near $110,669, with AI models projecting slight short-term declines.
• TFT model shows Bitcoin staying in the $108K–$120K range through September.
• Volatility risk climbs sharply by month-end, with potential breakout catalysts looming.

Bitcoin is expected to remain largely range-bound over the next month, but market uncertainty is climbing sharply, according to the latest forecast from the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) deep learning model. The analysis points to heightened volatility risk by the end of September, suggesting that a major market move could be imminent.

Neutral Price Path, Short-Term Pressure

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $110,669. The TFT model projects a slight decline over the next week, with prices dipping 1.1% to around $109,451. Over a 30-day horizon, the forecast shows a modest 1.72% drop, with Bitcoin settling near $108,771.

The baseline scenario aligns with a previous WaveNet AI model forecast, suggesting Bitcoin will remain in a neutral channel between $108,000 and $120,000 for most of September. Analysts note that while selling pressure persists in the short term, the market remains supported within this band.

Bitcoin Range-Bound But Uncertainty Spikes to 50% in 30 Days

“The findings in this model predict a mostly neutral trend for Bitcoin… However, there is a sharp increase in uncertainty and the possibility of a price jump at the end of the period.” – By @CryptoOnchain pic.twitter.com/AsSrZelwuO

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 8, 2025

Uncertainty Surges Toward Month-End

The key signal in the latest forecast is the sharp expansion of confidence intervals. Model uncertainty climbs above 50% by late September, indicating an elevated risk of volatility. This divergence from the earlier WaveNet model reflects a more conservative outlook but underscores the growing likelihood of a major move.

The TFT model highlights two potential scenarios: a continuation of neutral trading through most of the month or a breakout event triggered by external catalysts in the final week of September. Such catalysts could include macroeconomic announcements, regulatory developments, or shifts in market sentiment, with the potential to push Bitcoin sharply higher or lower.

For now, Bitcoin remains steady in its range. But with AI models flashing caution signals, traders are bracing for a decisive test of direction as September draws to a close.

Adding to the complexity, recent  CryptoQuant on-chain data shows a widening divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum, hinting at evolving capital flows that may shape the next phase of the market. Bitcoin’s exchange reserves remain stable at 2.53 million BTC, while ETH shows signs of more pronounced movement.

 

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