Bitcoin's challenge at the $115K level may reshape how institutions perceive its reliability

Bitcoin continues to hover near the critical $115,000 support zone, as investors keep a close eye on whether this level will withstand the latest market swings. Experts have noted that a drop under this benchmark could pave the way for a decline toward $93,600, while successfully holding above it could spark another attempt at the $137,300 mark. Glassnode’s latest figures highlight three notable surges of exchange deposits in the past two days, with each surpassing $25 million. The size and timing of these inflows point to intensified selling activity, as many interpret these movements as large holders or institutions gearing up to reduce their exposure.

Price turbulence surrounding the FOMC announcement has further muddied the immediate forecast. During one particularly volatile period, $105 million was liquidated in just half an hour, illustrating the heightened leverage and risk of rapid, amplified losses. Market commentator CrypNuevo described this as a typical “retracement following a deceptive initial move,” a pattern frequently observed after central bank news. The sharp increase in liquidations highlighted how vulnerable leveraged traders are to abrupt price fluctuations, especially during major macroeconomic events.

On the other hand, some experts maintain a guardedly positive stance. Raizelxbt pointed to a possible short-term entry point in the $119,000–$120,000 range, referencing a four-hour fair value gap and previous highs as important signals. This perspective captures an ongoing debate in trading circles: while some expect a lower high to develop near $120,000 and prefer a short position, others believe the $115,000 support will continue to hold strong.

Institutional participation remains a major driver of Bitcoin’s mid-term outlook. In the last five trading sessions, U.S. spot

ETFs have seen net inflows totaling $2.33 billion. Since being introduced in January 2024, these products have drawn $56.79 billion in funds, underscoring persistent and robust demand. Publicly listed companies now own more than $117 billion in Bitcoin, and Bitwise projects that institutional holdings could climb to $120 billion by 2025 and reach $300 billion by 2026. These developments signal a growing trend of including Bitcoin in diversified investment strategies and using it as protection against economic uncertainty.

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate announcement is another crucial element for the short-term picture. The market has almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate reduction, with CME Group’s Fedwatch tool assigning a 92% chance to this scenario. Analysts believe such a cut would likely encourage investors to seek riskier assets like Bitcoin, as borrowing costs fall and capital shifts toward higher-return opportunities. Still, any unexpected hawkish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could prompt a swift pullback.

Technical signals also underscore the importance of the $115,000 level. The MVRV Z-Score, an indicator of whether Bitcoin is over- or undervalued compared to its realized price, shows the market sitting near crucial support. If prices dip below $115,000, it could mark a shift toward bearish sentiment. However, Bitcoin’s current 57% market dominance and the 6.79% gain recorded in September point to ongoing strength. Traders are watching for a weekly close above this threshold to reinforce the case for further upward momentum.