Bitcoin Price Analysis: Kalshi Bettors Predict 69% Chance of $125K Rally as BlackRock ETF Absorbs $3.1B

Key Notes

• Bitcoin consolidates above $115,000 on Saturday, September 20, erasing weekly timeframe losses as BlackRock’s IBIT ETF absorbs $3,1 billion in 10-day inflows.
• Kalshi bettors price a 69% chance of BTC hitting $125,000 in November 2025.
• $3,1 billion inflows highlight BlackRock’s sustained demand for BTC amid Fed-driven market turbulence.

Bitcoin (BTC) price consolidated near $115,000 on Saturday, Sept. 20, erasing losses from Fed-induced turbulence during the past week. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF absorbed $246 million on Friday, the only US-listed ETF to record positive flows.

FarsideUK data shows that, excluding Thursday’s stalemate, BlackRock’s IBIT ETF has now avoided negative flows since September 5, accumulating $3.1 billion over the last 10 days of trading. BlackRock’s positive outlook on BTC also reverberates across crypto prediction markets.

When Will Bitcoin Hit $125K

Real-time data from Kalshi shows 69% of bettors expect BTC to hit $125,000 by November 2025, a one percent increase in the past 24 hours, with over $11.9 million wagered.

During market consolidation, strategic new entrants often look to prediction markets for clues on the next directional price move. This uptick in BTC all-time high bets on Kalshi could encourage fresh capital inflows as the turbulence from the US Fed’s recent monetary policy tweaks subside.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: $125K Breakout In-Play if Golden Cross Holds at $114K

Despite increased volatility after the Fed rate cut on Wednesday, Bitcoin maintains critical resilience signals. The daily chart shows BTC trading above a Golden cross at $114,395, where the 7-day moving average has cleared the 50-day moving average.

The current MACD readings are also positive. The MACD line at 915 remains above the signal line at 492, while the histogram bars remain in positive territory.

With the Golden cross still in play, bears still need a decisive close below $114,000 to establish dominance.

On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the 7-day SMA near $116,000, followed by the key psychological target of $120,000. A confirmed break above $120,000, backed by ETF inflows, could propel BTC directly toward $125,000, aligning with Kalshi bettors’ expectations.

In summary, ETF demand combined with the active golden cross on the BTCUSD 24-hour chart strengthens the probability of BTC price extending gains toward a new all-time high in the coming weeks.

Best Wallet Gains Momentum Alongside Bitcoin’s ETF Rally

Bitcoin’s ETF-driven resilience over the past week has also fueled optimism around early-stage projects like Best Wallet (BEST). Beyond multi-chain crypto storage, Best Wallet offers institutional-grade security that appeals to investors seeking diversification beyond large-cap coins.

As Bitcoin consolidates above $115K and ETF flows sustain bullish sentiment, projects like Best Wallet capture spillover demand from traders seeking higher upside opportunities in emerging markets.