Behind Ethereum's Volatile Price Movements: Dual Drivers of Macro-Easing and Institutional Accumulation

Event Review 🔍

Within just one hour, the price of Ethereum (ETH) experienced a dramatic fluctuation. According to data, the market opened at around $3,863–$3,865 at 22:00, then rapidly surged to $3,994 within just 56 minutes, marking a single-stage increase of 3.39%. Furthermore, from 22:00 to 23:20, driven by institutional buying and expectations of loose liquidity, the ETH price soared from $3,865 to $4,069 (latest quote approximately $4,067.58), with an overall increase of 5.28%. This round of market volatility was not only filled with swift and decisive buying but also reflected the market’s positive response to policy expectations and institutional behavior.

Timeline ⏰

• 22:00: Ethereum opened at around $3,863–$3,865. The market showed initial volatility, with funds starting to flow from safe-haven assets to risk assets.
• 22:00–22:56: Within just 56 minutes, the ETH price quickly rose from $3,863 to $3,994, a single-stage increase of about 3.39%, indicating rapid capital inflow and strong rebound signals.
• 22:00–23:20: Continuous institutional accumulation and expectations of loose liquidity jointly pushed the price further up to $4,069 (about $4,067.58 at 23:20), with an overall increase of 5.28%, suggesting that bottom positioning in the market is beginning to show results.

Reason Analysis 🌍

This round of dramatic market volatility was mainly driven by the following two factors:

1. Macroeconomic Policy Expectations and Loose Liquidity
   Recently, there have been frequent reports that the Federal Reserve may adopt interest rate cuts and slow down balance sheet adjustments. Coupled with rumors of government funding delays and shutdown risks, a large amount of capital has shifted from traditional safe-haven assets to risk assets. The inflow of funds into the crypto market has driven the rapid rise in the prices of digital assets such as Ethereum.

2. Active Institutional Funds and Major Accumulation
   Multiple data points indicate that there have been frequent large institutional orders in the market, with continuous net inflows of major funds. At the same time, institutions have been accumulating at relatively high average prices, showing a solid layout in the bottom region. Supported by technical signals (golden cross, bottom fractals), major players further pushed prices upward, forming strong rebound momentum.

Technical Analysis 📊

This analysis is based on the 45-minute candlestick data of Binance USDT perpetual contract ETH/USDT, considering technical indicators and trading volume from multiple perspectives:

• Moving Averages and Golden Cross Signal: EMA10 crossed above EMA20 to form a golden cross, and MA5, MA10, and MA20 are arranged in a bullish order, indicating a short- and mid-term bullish trend.
• Momentum Indicators: MACD has crossed above the zero axis, indicating enhanced mid-term momentum; at the same time, the price increase is accompanied by consecutive increases in the MACD histogram, showing strong buying power.
• Overbought Warning: RSI broke through 70 and entered the overbought zone, while the KDJ indicator and J value also show overbought conditions, suggesting a potential short-term pullback risk.
• Volume Analysis: Trading volume surged by 268.77%, with current volume far exceeding the recent average. The OBV (On-Balance Volume) indicator broke previous highs, indicating active buying and continuous capital inflow.
• Candlestick Patterns: Bullish patterns such as consecutive three white soldiers and bullish candlestick arrangements appeared, but the super-active trading volume combined with short-term overbought signals leaves some risk room for market correction.

Market Outlook 🔮

Currently, Ethereum is in a strong upward phase, with institutional accumulation and loose liquidity providing dual support for the market. However, technical overbought phenomena (RSI, KDJ hovering at high levels) suggest that some profit-taking may occur in the short term. Investors should pay attention to the following aspects:

• Risk Control: While chasing the rally, it is recommended to pay attention to stop-loss settings to avoid uncontrolled positions due to blindly following the rise.
• Key Price Levels: If the price remains firm, it may climb further in the short term, but once there are clear signs of a pullback, the risk of short-term volatility and correction increases.
• Institutional Trends: Institutional accumulation is still ongoing. If new large orders or changes in capital flows occur, they may become key signals for a market turning point.
• Market Sentiment: Combined with macro policy news and market capital conditions, long-term bullish sentiment is strong, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the risk of temporary corrections caused by capital fluctuations.

Overall, Ethereum is currently showing a strong rebound under the dual benefits of macroeconomic easing and institutional accumulation, but overbought indicators and high trading volume warn investors to maintain risk control. It is recommended to watch for technical correction opportunities, respond to potential future volatility with a prudent strategy, and closely monitor policy and institutional capital flows to identify the next entry signal.