Solana Holds Key Support as Mid-Term Holders Sell—Is a Breakout Still on the Table?

The recent price action of Solana (SOL) shows signs of resilience, though the broader crypto market remains unstable. 

Despite attempts at recovery, the token faces mid-term holder selling pressure, casting doubt on its near-term strength. Still, technical patterns hint that Solana could mount another rally if momentum aligns.

Solana Holders Sell

On-chain data from HODL Waves reveals an interesting trend among Solana investors. Mid-term holders—those who have held SOL for three to six months—are steadily reducing their holdings. This group’s supply has declined by 1.7% in October alone, suggesting that investors are offloading their tokens amid uncertainty.

What’s more, the supply of six- to twelve-month holders hasn’t increased, confirming that the coins aren’t maturing but are instead being sold. This pattern indicates growing skepticism and could add selling pressure on SOL’s price. 

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Solana HODL Waves. Source: Glassnode

The HODL Cave metric sheds light on the motivation behind this selling trend. Contrary to profit-taking behavior, data suggest these investors are driven by fear rather than greed. The median return for holders in the three- to six-month range sits between 1.14x and 1.4x, modest gains that imply panic selling rather than strategic exits.

Many investors appear eager to lock in small profits or minimize potential losses as prices waver. This behavior typically surfaces during periods of market uncertainty. If this cautious sentiment persists, it may limit Solana’s upward potential in the short term.

Solana HODL Cave. Source: Glassnode

SOL Price Needs A Bounce

At the time of writing, Solana’s price stands at $184, holding above the crucial $183 support. The altcoin appears to be forming a flag pattern, a technical setup often associated with bullish breakouts. However, confirmation will depend on volume strength and investor conviction.

Following the recent crash, SOL briefly dropped out of this pattern before testing and validating it again. For a clear breakout, Solana needs to bounce off the lower trendline or move past $192. Failure to sustain buying pressure could drive the token below $175, potentially falling to $163, invalidating the bullish pattern.

Solana Price Analysis. Source:  TradingView

Conversely, if Solana breaches $192, it could surpass $200, a key psychological barrier. Breaking out from the pattern could ignite renewed momentum, setting the stage for a potential surge toward $250. Nevertheless, investors and traders should proceed with caution given the current market fragility.