Solana’s Next Bounce Could Be Big — But a 20% Move May Be the Rally Trigger
Solana price is down 10% this week but a 20% bounce could flip its structure bullish. Short-term holders are adding again while long-term selling eases, setting the stage for a possible breakout above $213 and $222 if momentum holds.
Solana price has had a tricky few weeks. Each attempt to break resistance has ended in a short-lived bounce. The token is down 10% over the past seven days but still holds a small three-month gain of about 2%, keeping its broader uptrend intact.
Now, another bounce looks possible — and this time, both on-chain and chart data suggest it could build into something stronger, provided the Solana price clears key resistance levels.
Short-Term Buyers Step Up as Long-Term Pressure Eases
Blockchain data from HODL Waves shows that short-term holders are back to accumulating. This metric tracks what percentage of a token’s total supply is held by different age groups of holders.
Over the past two weeks, wallets holding SOL for one to three months have increased their share from 14.61% on October 7 to 18.46% on October 21, a gain of roughly 26%, showing clear accumulation near recent lows.
Short-Term Holders Add SOL:
Glassnode
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
Meanwhile, long-term holders are still selling, but at a slower pace. The Hodler Net Position Change metric — which measures how much long-term investors are increasing or reducing holdings — remains negative.
This means coins are still leaving older wallets. However, the outflows have dropped sharply by about 59%, from -10.52 million SOL on October 7 to -4.33 million SOL on October 21.
Solana Holders Are Selling Fewer Tokens:
Glassnode
The shift signals that short-term buyers are now absorbing most of what long-term holders are selling. The slowing sell pressure, paired with active dip buying, supports the case for a stronger bounce. If resistance levels are cleared, that could evolve into a breakout.
However, the Solana price bounce theory could get a bigger push if the net-selling turns into net-buying.
Solana Price Structure Points to a Breakout Window Opening Soon
On the daily chart, the Solana price continues to move inside a falling wedge, a setup that often resolves upward. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the speed and strength of price movements, shows a bullish divergence, where RSI has made higher lows while price made lower lows between September 25 and October 21.
This pattern usually leads to a trend reversal, but the SOL price has been settling for mere bounces.
A bullish divergence means momentum is improving even though price hasn’t yet reacted, hinting that sellers are losing control. A similar pattern between September 25 and October 17 triggered a 13.4% rebound (bounce), lifting Solana from $174 to $197.
Solana Price Analysis:
TradingView
If the same behavior repeats, a 15% rise from the current level near $184 could take Solana to $213, breaking its lower-high price pattern. A further 20% move to $222 would confirm a wedge breakout and possibly extend the rally toward $236–$253.
However, if Solana drops below $172, the bullish structure would break down and could trigger a deeper slide. As the lower trendline of the wedge is formed using two touchpoints, it could be weaker. Therefore, a dip under $172 is something that bullish Solana traders might be wary of.
For now, improving momentum and easing sell pressure show that this bounce might finally have enough strength. Even for a Solana price rally to start.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
From Spotlight to the Sidelines: The Bubble Burst of 8 Star VC-Backed Projects
Is it because the model is unsustainable, the ecosystem has yet to launch, the competitors are too strong, or is there simply insufficient market demand?

The Next "Black Swan": "Tariff Refund Mega Deal", Wall Street and Individual Investors Are Placing Bets
Individual investors are participating in this game through emerging prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Since the U.S. legislation in July, stablecoin usage has surged by 70%!
After the "Genius Act" was passed in the United States, stablecoin payment volumes surged, with August transactions exceeding 10 billion USD. Nearly two-thirds of this amount came from inter-company transfers, making it the main driving force.

BlackRock Shifts $500 Million Funds to Polygon Network
In Brief BlackRock transfers $500 million to Polygon, enhancing blockchain integration in finance. The move shows increased trust in blockchain-based financial structures. It indicates a trend towards decentralization and long-term structural change in finance.

