A bitcoin wallet that had been dormant for 14.4 years suddenly became active, transferring 150 BTC. This batch of ancient bitcoins moved on the blockchain for the first time, sparking great curiosity within the crypto community. A dormant address holding 4,000 BTC (worth about $440 million) was activated last night, moving 150 BTC (about $16.56 million) for the first time in approximately 14.4 years.
This on-chain activity was quickly detected by blockchain monitoring platforms and sparked widespread discussion in the crypto community. Any movement from wallets that have remained silent since the Satoshi era can trigger sensitive reactions in the market.
I. Event Review: Awakening of an Ancient Whale
In the bitcoin ecosystem, sudden activity from long-dormant addresses always attracts significant market attention, especially those traceable back to the early "Satoshi era." According to AiCoin monitoring, on October 24, a bitcoin wallet that had been dormant for about 14.4 years was activated for the first time. Since its creation, the wallet had never made any moves, storing 4,000 BTC internally, which is currently valued at $440.4 million.
Table: Recent Ancient Bitcoin Wallet Awakening Events
Date | Bitcoin Involved | Value at the Time | Key Information |
October 24, 2025 | 4,000 BTC (150 BTC transferred) | About $442 million | A wallet created in 2011 (around June 27) was activated after 14.3 years of dormancy, transferring only 150 BTC to a new address, with the remainder returned as "change" to the original system. |
October 15, 2025 | 20,000 BTC | About $2.18 billion | Two wallets that each received 10,000 BTC in April 2011 were activated simultaneously after 14 years and 7 months of dormancy, transferring their entire balances within 30 minutes. |
May 31, 2025 | 221.99 BTC | Over $23 million | Four vintage wallets from 2011 moved funds for the first time in nearly 14 years. |
March 24, 2025 | 100 BTC | About $8.5 million | A wallet created in August 2011 transferred all its funds after nearly 14 years. |
Source: Compiled by AiCoin
In this activation, the wallet owner moved only 150 BTC (about $16.56 million) to a new address, while the remaining 3,850 BTC stayed untouched at the original address. Blockchain data shows that another wallet belonging to this whale previously received 4,050 BTC and has maintained a long-term selling strategy.
II. Market Impact: Multiple Factors Intertwined
Price and Trading Aspects
● The bitcoin market is experiencing a sensitive period, with prices fluctuating between $100,000 and $110,000. On the same day the ancient wallet was activated, bitcoin's price saw a brief surge, reaching the $111,000 mark, with a 24-hour increase of 2.72%.
On-chain Fundamentals
The activity of ancient wallets is not an isolated event. Recently, several long-dormant addresses have awakened in succession, forming a pattern.
● The movement of these early addresses may indicate that early holders are preparing for the next market cycle, or believe that the technological infrastructure has developed to a stage that warrants their renewed management.
● Meanwhile, a mysterious whale transferred 5,252 BTC worth $588 million to major exchanges including Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken.
● Market analysts point out that such large-scale capital inflows usually indicate holders intend to sell or hedge positions, increasing selling pressure on the market.
Capital and Liquidity
Capital flows present a complex situation.
● Last week, bitcoin ETFs experienced large-scale redemptions totaling $946 million, with U.S. funds accounting for the majority, selling about $621 million in a single week.
● However, European investors showed the opposite trend. Investors from Germany, Switzerland, and Canada jointly bought $144 million worth of the dip after the nearly $19 billion market liquidation event on October 10.
The regional differences in capital flows highlight the divergence among market participants regarding current price levels.
BlackRock and Grayscale were hit hardest by capital outflows, with combined losses exceeding $1 billion.
Table: Key On-chain Data and Market Indicator Monitoring
Monitoring Indicator | Current Data/Status | Signal Interpretation |
Ancient Wallet Movement | 150 BTC (worth about $16.56 million) | Neutral to cautious: small test transfer, not a full sell-off |
Whale Exchange Deposit | $588 million (5,252 BTC) | Bearish: large BTC transfers to exchanges usually indicate selling intent |
ETF Capital Flows | Single-week net outflow of $946 million | Bearish: institutional capital short-term withdrawal, market under pressure |
Bitcoin Holding Distribution | About 85% of BTC has not moved for over a year | Bullish: strong long-term holding conviction, reduced circulating supply |
Short-term Price Support | $107,400 - $104,400 | Key area: losing this may trigger further decline |
Source: Compiled by AiCoin
Industry and Sentiment
● Market sentiment is currently cautious, with investors showing hesitation near the $110,000 mark. If this area cannot be re-established as a support level, it may further confirm a bearish pattern.
● The appearance of a bear flag pattern suggests BTC price may test the $100,000 support level, with a target price of about $98,000 based on the pattern breakout.
III. Analyst Views: Divergence in Market Opinions
● On-chain detectives point out that the small transfer from the ancient wallet may be a technical operation rather than a market operation.
“These early holders usually have extremely strong conviction in bitcoin, with a very low cost basis, and market volatility rarely affects their decision logic. They may simply be performing wallet maintenance or asset restructuring.”
● ‘Macro Analyst V’ focuses on broader market dynamics: “U.S. bitcoin ETF products have seen an unusually large outflow, with about HK$9.6 billion withdrawn in a single week, marking the second-largest outflow since the product's launch last year.
This raises concerns that market investment sentiment is shifting from caution to panic, and the wave of selling may spread to other financial assets.”
● Institutional strategists agree with Standard Chartered Bank’s bitcoin bull Geoffrey Kendrick.
“Even if bitcoin breaks below the $100,000 psychological level, which is ‘almost inevitable,’ we believe this downturn will not last long and advise investors to take the opportunity to enter the market.
As investors react to trade conditions, bitcoin may briefly fall below the $100,000 mark, then rebound to challenge all-time highs.”
IV. Risk Warning: Increasing Market Uncertainty
Potential Risks
Investors should be alert to the following risks:
● Risk of Whale Concentrated Actions—A mysterious whale has transferred BTC worth $588 million to exchanges and opened a new short position of $234 million on Hyperliquid at about $111,190 per BTC.
This action indicates strong confidence in a continued downtrend and may trigger a follow-the-leader effect.
● Market Liquidity Tightening Risk—The investment market is experiencing a cash-out wave, with gold prices having dropped from a historical high of $4,380 to the $4,000 edge.
This cash-out wave may spread to the crypto market, putting further pressure on prices.
● Technical Breakdown Risk—After breaking below key short-term support, bitcoin is showing technical weakness. If the $107,400 support is lost, it may further test the $104,400 or even $101,100 levels.
Dynamic Tracking
In the coming days, several key indicators are worth close attention:
● U.S. CPI Data and Fed Policy Trends—The September CPI data, to be released at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight, is especially significant given the federal government shutdown and the absence of several key economic data points. This inflation data will provide important clues for the pace of U.S. interest rate cuts.
The market expects September CPI to rise 3.1% year-on-year. If the figure meets or falls below expectations, it will further strengthen expectations for a rate cut next week and benefit bitcoin’s price rebound.
● The Final Destination of Ancient Bitcoins—The key is to determine whether these moved bitcoins will enter exchanges for sale.
On-chain data currently shows that the target address has not shown immediate selling activity, but traders should continue to closely monitor these wallets to see if further transfers to exchange-related addresses occur.
V. Conclusion and Outlook: The Battle for Key Support Levels
The bitcoin market is at a critical crossroads. On one hand, the awakening of ancient wallets suggests early holders may be adjusting their positions; on the other hand, the large-scale withdrawal of institutional funds adds pressure.
● The release of U.S. CPI data tonight may serve as a catalyst for the market’s short-term direction. If the data strengthens expectations for Fed rate cuts, bitcoin is likely to regain upward momentum; conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, bitcoin may test the $100,000 psychological support level.
● In addition, whether seasonal factors can play a role again will be a key focus for the market for the remainder of the year.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, reiterated that the year-end bitcoin price target remains at $200,000. Even in the most pessimistic scenario, the year-end price should still be well above $150,000.
● However, achieving this target depends on the Fed continuing to cut rates to meet market expectations. In the short term, the market’s technicals are weak, and the $100,000 mark has become the main battleground for bulls and bears. CryptoQuant’s Head of Research, Julio Moreno, pointed out: “$100,000 is not only a psychological support zone but also the price level of the 365-day moving average; if this area collapses, selling pressure may accelerate.”
