[October 11 Short Whale] Sells Another 200 BTC—What Kind of Market Trend Will Collide with the Federal Reserve Decision?

On October 29, 2025, the cryptocurrency world once again turned its attention to the mysterious "10·11 Short Whale." On-chain data shows that this whale address urgently deposited 200 BTC, worth about $22.5 million, to the Kraken exchange today. This marks the 11th time in October that the whale has transferred assets to major exchanges, with a cumulative deposit of 11,271 BTC and a total value exceeding $1.28 billion.

The significant divergence among market whales coincides with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to be announced today. The market expects a 97.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at this meeting.

1. Whale Movements

This mysterious figure, known as the "10·11 Short Whale," earned the nickname from a shockingly precise operation on October 11.

● Before the Trump administration announced a 100% tariff policy on China, this whale preemptively established a short position of 3,477 BTC on the Hyperliquid platform. When the policy announcement triggered a market crash, the whale profited nearly $200 million in just one day.

● Even more surprising, the whale's operations demonstrated a high level of strategy. Between October 20 and 21, the whale continued to add to short positions on Hyperliquid, bringing the total short position to 1,100 BTC. However, a turning point came on October 23, when the whale began to close short positions on a large scale, closing 2,100 BTC shorts in a single day and earning $6.44 million.

Date	Main Operation
October 10	Before the Trump tariff policy announcement, deposited $80 million to Hyperliquid and opened a 6x leveraged short position of 3,477 BTC (about $1.1 billion).
October 20	Deposited another 30 million USDC to Hyperliquid, adding a 10x leveraged short position of 700 BTC at an average entry price of $109,133.1.
October 21	Continued to add to short positions on Hyperliquid, bringing the total short position to 1,100 BTC (about $121 million), still using 10x leverage.
October 23	A turning point: began to close short positions on a large scale to take profits. Closed 2,100 BTC shorts that day, earning $6.44 million. Then further reduced positions, lowering the 10x leveraged short to 470.48 BTC.
October 26	Deposited 200 BTC to Kraken exchange, worth about $22.32 million.

2. Key Technical Levels: The Battle Between Support and Resistance

According to data, bitcoin has strong support around $111,000, while there is significant sell-side supply around $117,000.

This price range defines the recent battleground between buyers and profit-takers. A breakout in either direction could set the tone for the next major market move.

If bitcoin price breaks through $114,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major centralized exchanges will reach $956 million. This large-scale liquidation could accelerate price movement and trigger short-term volatility.

Bitcoin Key Price Point Liquidation Analysis

Price Level	Liquidation Type	Cumulative Liquidation Intensity	Potential Market Impact
Above $114,000	Shorts	$956 million	Shorts liquidated, price may rise rapidly
Below $110,000	Longs	$657 million	Longs liquidated, price may fall rapidly

3. Market Environment During Super Central Bank Week

This week, global financial markets are ushering in a "Super Central Bank Week," with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan set to announce interest rate decisions on October 30 (GMT+8). The market generally expects these three central banks to take divergent paths.

● Unlike the Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts, the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are highly likely to "hold steady" this time.

● Since starting the rate-cutting process in June 2024, the European Central Bank has lowered rates eight times, maintaining unchanged rates since July this year. The divergence in monetary policies among major central banks has become a key factor affecting global currency markets. Last week, the US dollar index fluctuated and closed higher, rising 0.39% for the week.

4. Institutional Positioning and Sector Rotation

● In this cycle, institutional funds are increasingly concentrated in BTC, ETH, and SOL, presenting a "winner-takes-all" market structure. Investors are mainly focused on these three assets, and this concentration means liquidity and trading volume will cluster around these mainstream coins, offering a configuration advantage over small-cap altcoins.

● Stablecoins have become the main on-chain settlement medium for much of the liquidity. In the past 12 months, raw stablecoin trading volume reached $46 trillion, with the adjusted figure at $9 trillion. The current total supply of stablecoins has exceeded $300 billion, and the monthly adjusted trading volume in September 2025 approached $1.25 trillion.

● Meanwhile, a certain whale once again withdrew 8.515 million PROVE from CEX, worth about $6.84 million.

5. Key Catalysts and Risk Warnings

Investors need to be alert to several key risk points.

● First is the uncertainty of macro policy, as the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision could have a significant impact on the market.

● Second is structural market risk, as high-leverage positions could still trigger cascading liquidations in extreme market conditions.

There are several key signals worth close attention.

● Will this short whale continue to deposit BTC to exchanges, or turn to re-establish short positions? Will institutional funds increase allocations during market corrections? These factors will determine bitcoin's subsequent trend.

● From a technical analysis perspective, bitcoin is currently consolidating in the $108,000 to $115,000 range. If it can effectively break through the $115,000 resistance, a new round of upward movement may begin; conversely, if it falls below the $108,000 support, it may further test the $100,000 psychological level.

In this emerging cryptocurrency market, whale operations always tug at the nerves of every investor.

The series of moves by the "10·11 Short Whale" not only reflect the individual's market judgment, but also highlight the complex environment facing the current cryptocurrency market—geopolitics, regulatory policies, and macroeconomics are all influencing asset prices to an unprecedented degree.