Even the mNav of Strategy has dropped below 1. Where will DAT Company go from here?

Original Title: "Is this the Turning Point for DAT? These 12 Treasury Companies Representing mNav Have Fallen Below 1"

Original Author: CryptoLeo, Odaily Planet Daily

2025 was a vibrant year for DAT, with many companies joining in since the implementation of the encrypted treasury strategy by Strategy. Currently, there are over 200 DAT companies in the market, with treasuries covering dozens of different cryptocurrencies. In July alone, DAT's funding amount reached $6.2 billion. We have indeed seen many enterprises transform into encrypted treasury companies in the early stages of transformation when it was difficult to profit, driving up stock prices/market value, all proclaiming that DAT is the future. But is DAT a trap or the future?

With the recent decline in BTC/ETH, falling even below the entry cost of many treasury companies, it means that the BTC/ETH purchased by enterprises has turned into a loss, causing public concern and leading to a decrease in their market value.

Yesterday, I saw a column of "startling" data showing that the mNav of many DAT companies has fallen below 1 (except for some mining companies, exchanges, and early investors; the mNav of most encrypted treasury companies is below 1), including Strategy, the "treasury concept founding giant."

mNav (Market Value to Cryptocurrency Holdings Value ratio) is a key data point for encrypted treasury companies that everyone is concerned about. Odaily Planet Daily will list a batch of BTC/ETH treasury companies whose mNav has fallen below 1.

BTC Treasury Companies with mNav Below 1

Strategy

Data: Strategy currently holds 641,692 BTC, with holdings valued at $65.04 billion, a company market value of $63.67 billion, and an mNav currently reported at 0.979.

Recent Trends: There has been no halt in accumulation, transitioning from large-scale BTC purchases to small-scale.

Metaplanet

Data: Metaplanet currently holds 30,823 BTC, with holdings valued at $3.124 billion, a company market value of $3.024 billion, and an mNav currently reported at 0.968.

Recent Trends: The "Reasonable Rug Pull," leveraging held Bitcoin for $1 billion in financing, with the funds used for additional BTC purchases and stock buybacks.

The Smarter Web Company

Data: The Smarter Web Company currently holds 2664 BTC, with a holding value of $270 million, a company market cap of $2.21 billion, and mNav currently at 0.783.

Recent Trends: Engaging in a $360,000 financing round, or may continue to accumulate.

Semler Scientific

Data: Semler Scientific currently holds 5048 BTC, with a holding value of $512 million, a company market cap of $3.74 billion, and mNav currently at 0.73.

Recent Trends: Stock merger, Semler Scientific and Strive announce an all-stock merger deal, which will result in holding over 10,900 BTC.

Empery Digital

Data: Empery Digital currently holds 4081 BTC, with a holding value of $414 million, a company market cap of $2.46 billion, and mNav currently at 0.595.

Recent Trends: Focusing on increasing mNav, Q3 financial report indicates approximately $80 million worth of stock buybacks executed.

Sequans Communications

Data: Sequans Communications currently holds 2264 BTC, with a holding value of $229 million, a company market cap of $1.66 billion, and mNav currently at 0.73.

Recent Trends: Debt reduction, maintaining a long-term strategy of increasing BTC holdings. Sold 970 BTC to redeem about 50% of convertible bonds, reducing the company's total debt from $189 million to $95 million.

mNav Falls Below 1 for ETH Treasury

Bitmine Immersion Tech

Data: Currently holding 3.529 million ETH, with a holding value of $12.07 billion, company market cap of $11.43 billion, and mNav at 0.946.

Recent Moves: Unlimited ammo, continues to acquire an additional 24,007 ETH.

SharpLink Gaming

Data: Currently holding 859,400 ETH, with a holding value of $2.94 billion, company market cap of $2.28 billion, and mNav at 0.84.

Recent Moves: Acquired an additional 19,271 ETH.

The Ether Machine

Data: Currently holding 496,700 ETH, with a holding value of $1.7 billion, company market cap of $171 million, and mNav at 0.08 (never reaching 1).

Recent Moves: Plans to go public through a merger with Dynamix.

BTCS Inc.

Data: Currently holding 70,000 ETH, with a holding value of $239 million, company market cap of $143 million, and mNav at 0.6.

Recent Moves: Distributing dividends and bonus shares to shareholders in ETH.

FG Nexus

Data: Currently holding 50,000 ETH, with a holding value of $173.5 million, company market cap of $142 million, and mNav at 0.82.

Recent Moves: Expanding European user base, listed on the German exchange with the ticker symbol "LU51".

ETHZilla

Data: Currently holding 93,790 ETH, with a holding value of $320 million, a market cap of $2.773 billion, and a mNav of 0.86.

Recent Trends: Attempting to raise mNav, sold $40 million worth of ETH to buy back company stock (but was not successful).

A Race to the Bottom Between Coin Price and Treasury Company Stock Price: Will Selling Coins to Sustain Operations Work?

DAT fundamentally revolves around financing and buying crypto in a compounding loop, achieving high valuations to continue issuing bonds/stocks to buy more crypto. The premise of this metric is "profit holding," but if the price of the purchased crypto falls, leading to a stock price drop, it becomes a race to the bottom between the coin price and circulating stock price. Debt repayment and financing obstruction are the two main "pain points" that DAT companies face. In the future, it may be unavoidable to sell some crypto to repay part of the debt, and treasury selling crypto to sustain operations is also a major concern for everyone.

For some financially strong and sufficiently large companies, this may not be a short-term concern. For example, Strategy. Saylor, as a diamond hand, has repeatedly emphasized never selling BTC. Strategy still has strong financing capabilities and prudent capital structure management in the capital markets. In the short term, Strategy continues to accumulate small amounts of BTC. However, in the medium to long term, if BTC enters a bear market or the debt is nearing maturity, coupled with Standard & Poor's previous rating of B- for Strategy (in Standard & Poor's view, Strategy is a high default risk "junk"), if the rating has a long-term impact, Strategy's stock price and financing capabilities will also be affected, and the probability of selling Bitcoin to repay debt will increase. Although the current BTC bull-bear cycle is not a 4-year rotation, the scenario where the BTC bear market price falls below $90,000 can be temporarily dismissed.

Previously, crypto analyst Willy Woo also stated: "Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) will not need to sell part of its Bitcoin reserves to repay debt in the next major cryptocurrency market downturn. Strategy's debt is primarily in the form of convertible preferred notes. Strategy can choose to repay the maturing convertible debt in cash, common stock, or a combination of both. Strategy has about $1.01 billion in debt maturing on September 15, 2027. To avoid the need to sell Bitcoin to repay the debt, Strategy's stock price must exceed $183.19. He added that this price is roughly equivalent to a Bitcoin price of around $91,502, assuming an mNav of 1."

Saylor may not need to worry about a Strategy BTC sell-off issue for the time being, but for many companies with low liquidity, high debt, and weak financing capabilities, the situation is not as favorable. There have been cases of selling Bitcoin to repay debts by more than one company. The previously mentioned U.S.-listed semiconductor company, Sequans Communications, also sold 970 Bitcoins in early November to redeem around 50% of its convertible bonds, reducing the company's total debt from $189 million to $95 million, with the debt-to-equity ratio dropping from 55% to 39%.

Furthermore, the Ethereum treasury company ETHZilla also sold $40 million worth of ETH for a stock buyback at the end of October this year, aiming to bring its mNAV back above 1. However, the speed of its stock price decline has even exceeded that of the token (ETH) decline. As mentioned earlier, selling tokens affects its stock price. Currently, ETHZilla has a market capitalization of $2.666 billion, ETH holdings worth $3.222 billion, mNav at 0.82, and has not returned to 1.

Reality shows that this "big buyer" in TradFi has very little demand for these DAT stocks. Even if there is a cryptocurrency rebound at the end of the year, the performance of DAT stocks may not rise without the support of TradFi. The mNav returning above 1 seems distant. The longer a DAT company trades continuously under a low mNav, the more desperate its shareholders become, ultimately leading to forced cryptocurrency sales or facing discounted acquisitions. They control a significant supply of BTC and ETH, and each sale they make could exert significant downward pressure on mainstream and altcoins.

Currently, there are hardly any DAT companies successfully replicating Strategy. The eventual outcome for DAT may be acquisition by Saylor or Tom Lee, leading to further centralization of cryptocurrency chips. Whether through cryptocurrency sell-offs or acquisitions, it is not beneficial for us in the market.

At the time of writing, Tom Lee retweeted a post: Top institutions have all bought BitMine stocks, including Ark, BlackRock, Vanguard Group, JP Morgan, and others. This to some extent gives some comfort to those of us concerned about DAT. If DAT companies can hold on for a while until their stocks slowly return to the eyes of TradFi (portfolio), the future of DAT remains promising. It's hard to speculate how long the Wall Street giants will accept DAT stocks in their "conservative eyes." We can only hope that the "commander-in-chief" Trump can announce some favorable measures for encrypted DAT.