Institutions Preview US September Nonfarm Payroll Report: Labor Market Weakness May Continue, But It's Too Early to Call a Collapse

BlockBeats News, November 20, the first non-farm payroll report after the shutdown will be released tonight, with the following views from various institutions:

Rockefeller: It is expected that non-farm payrolls in September will increase by 50,000, indicating that the job market remains stable, although previously released labor data has shown clear signs of weakness;

Indeed Hiring Lab: Compared to previous reports, it does not believe that the September non-farm payroll report will see significant changes, and the current weakness in the labor market is expected to continue;

Pantheon Macroeconomics: Any data that appears unsatisfactory at present may continue to ferment due to the ongoing six-week data vacuum, and the negative impact of the non-farm payroll data may be amplified;

Reuters Survey: It is expected that non-farm payrolls in September will increase by 50,000. Economists believe that August's data was suppressed by seasonal anomalies and may be revised upward based on trends from previous years;

Loyola Marymount University: The labor market is clearly slowing down, and the general expectation is that this trend will continue. The labor market will linger at the bottom for a while, but will not fall into recession;

Nationwide: It is expected that non-farm payrolls in September will increase by 40,000-50,000, which will further confirm that the summer weakness in the job market has continued into autumn, with companies maintaining a stance of neither hiring nor firing;

Crédit Agricole: It is expected that non-farm payrolls in September will increase by 55,000, with the unemployment rate recorded at 4.3%. The labor market appears to be cooling, but has not collapsed, and remains in a "low hiring, low layoffs" situation;

Standard Chartered Bank: It is expected that non-farm payroll data from September to November will be "very weak," with seasonal hiring likely to be very subdued and layoffs exceptionally high. This should be enough to persuade the Fed's centrists to join the rate-cutting camp;

Goldman Sachs: It is expected that non-farm payrolls in September will increase by 80,000, with the unemployment rate recorded at 4.3%. Risks may be hidden in the unreleased October data, and it is expected that non-farm payrolls in October will record -50,000;

United Bank: It is expected that non-farm payrolls in September will increase by about 40,000. The market reaction may be smaller than usual, as more information about the job market can already be obtained from data released by private institutions;

Consulting firm RSM: The September data, along with revised figures for July and August, will show that the employment outlook is slightly better than generally expected, but far from impressive. The labor market is still struggling to hold up, and so is the overall U.S. economy.

(Note: The market consensus expectation is that U.S. non-farm payrolls in September will increase by 50,000, with the unemployment rate recorded at 4.3%.)