Bitunix Analyst: ADP Employment Data Disappoints and Capital Divergence Intensifies, Making BTC 93k the Key Short-term Bull-Bear Watershed

BlockBeats News, December 4 — The latest data shows that in November, the US "ADP National Employment Report" unexpectedly decreased by 32,000 jobs, far below market expectations, indicating that the labor market is cooling at an accelerated pace. This report serves as an important reference for the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision, and the weakening employment data adds further uncertainty to potential policy shifts. After the data release, safe-haven assets strengthened, gold prices rebounded to the $4,220 level, and the crypto market saw an expansion in range-bound volatility.

From a macro perspective, the decline in employment mainly came from small and micro enterprises, with companies employing fewer than 50 people cutting 120,000 jobs in a single month—the largest drop since March 2023—reflecting simultaneous pressure on end demand and the financing environment. The annual wage growth rate fell to 4.4%, indicating marginal easing of inflationary pressures. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to nearly 90% in the interest rate futures market, with short-term rate expectations turning dovish, the US dollar index experiencing increased volatility, and risk assets entering a repricing phase.

In the crypto market, ETF capital flows have shown significant divergence: BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $14.9 million in a single day, while ETH recorded a net inflow of $140.2 million, indicating a rotation of funds from BTC to the Ethereum ecosystem. In terms of liquidation structure over the past 24 hours, BTC long positions were liquidated for $45.07 million and short positions for $50.73 million; ETH long positions for $26.38 million and short positions for $103.37 million, with ETH short liquidations being significantly higher, and short-term volatility remaining elevated. Currently, it remains to be seen whether BTC can hold above $93,000; if it fails, $90,500 will become a key short-term support level.

According to Bitunix analysts, against the backdrop of weakening employment and rising expectations of rate cuts, the market is entering a "macro turning point expectation + internal crypto capital rotation" composite phase. ETF capital flows and liquidation structures indicate that risk appetite is diverging rather than expanding in unison, and the short term remains a structurally volatile pattern. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether rate expectations are further revised downward and whether capital continues to rotate from bitcoin to high-beta assets, as this will determine the risk level and trend slope of the next market phase.