Derive Founder: Divergence in Bitcoin Options, Capital Flows Remain Cautious

Derive founder Nick Forster stated that traders are shifting towards defensive structural allocations, with the 30-day implied volatility of bitcoin rising to nearly 45% and skew remaining around -5%. Market positions are polarized, with call option positions accumulating at the $100,000 and $120,000 strike prices, while bears are accumulating put option exposure near the $85,000 strike price. Implied probabilities from options indicate that the probability of bitcoin reaching $100,000 is about 30%, and the probability of reclaiming its all-time high is about 10%.