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Bitcoin dominance hits 59 per cent: Is the altcoin season over? Anndy Lian Bitcoin dominance hits 59 per cent: Is the altcoin season over? US equities ended Thursday on a high note, breaking a brief two-day slide as optimism around artificial intelligence reignited investor appetite. The catalyst came from across the Pacific: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s strong earnings and bullish 2026 guidance reassured markets that AI demand remains robust rather than speculative. This sentiment lifted chipmakers such as Nvidia and ASML to record levels, pushing the Nasdaq Composite up 0.25 per cent to 23,530.02, while the Dow surged 0.60 per cent to 49,442.44 and the S&P 500 edged higher by 0.26 per cent to close at 6,944.47. Meanwhile, Asian markets extended their momentum into Friday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index hitting a new all-time high and poised for its fourth straight weekly gain, the longest such streak since May, fuelled largely by tech strength, including a jump in Indian equities after Infosys delivered upbeat results. In contrast, the crypto market pulled back modestly, shedding 0.75 per cent over the past 24 hours. This dip reflects a classic post-rally consolidation, but deeper forces are at play. Bitcoin dominance climbed to 59.12 per cent, signalling a flight to relative safety within the digital asset space as traders rotated out of altcoins. The Altcoin Season Index declined 11 per cent in a day, underscoring waning enthusiasm for riskier tokens, a pattern reminiscent of 2025, when Bitcoin outperformed altcoins by 38 per cent amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Layer-1 networks such as Solana and Ethereum lag, and social sentiment metrics indicate declining momentum for smaller-cap projects. If the Altcoin Season Index remains below 25, this Bitcoin-centric phase could persist. Regulatory ambiguity added another layer of caution. In Washington, the CLARITY Act stalled due to disputes over whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to pay interest, a seemingly technical detail with profound implications for how regulators classify digital assets. Simultaneously, Binance temporarily halted deposits and withdrawals for several tokens, including ARB and 1INCH, citing technical reviews. Such moves often stem from compliance checks, but they fuel market-wide nervousness, particularly among altcoin traders who rely on liquidity and exchange access. Bitcoin itself remains somewhat insulated. US spot ETFs now hold US$126.8 billion in assets under management, providing a structural bid that buffers against retail-driven volatility. Perhaps the most telling signal comes from derivatives markets. Open interest in perpetual futures swelled by 18.9 per cent to US$655 billion, but this surge coincided with US$68 million in Bitcoin liquidations, US$55 million from long positions alone. Funding rates spiked by 60 per cent, revealing overcrowded bullish bets. With Bitcoin’s RSI hovering between 65 and 78, the asset remains technically overbought despite the minor pullback. This suggests that the market is undergoing a necessary deleveraging phase rather than a fundamental reversal. Such corrections are typical after sharp rallies, especially when leverage builds rapidly. From my viewpoint, this moment encapsulates the diverging narratives shaping financial markets in early 2026. Traditional equities, particularly those tied to AI infrastructure, benefit from clear earnings visibility and institutional backing. TSMC’s forecast acts as a proxy for real-world AI adoption, not just hype. Crypto, however, still operates in a regulatory grey zone where policy delays and exchange actions can trigger outsized reactions. The current rotation into Bitcoin reflects a maturing market. Investors increasingly treat it as digital gold or a macro hedge, while reserving altcoins for higher-conviction, higher-risk scenarios. That said, Ethereum’s staking activity continues to reach all-time highs in transaction volume, suggesting an underlying utility that may eventually decouple it from broader risk-off moves. The key levels to watch remain Bitcoin’s US$93,000 support and the Altcoin Season Index threshold. If Bitcoin holds firm and the index rebounds above 25, altcoins could stage a recovery. But if regulatory headwinds intensify or macro data shifts, the safety-first trend will likely deepen. For now, the dip appears corrective, a pause for breath after a sprint, not the start of a retreat.

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