Bitget App
Trade smarter
Buy cryptoMarketsTradeFuturesEarnSquareMore
Macroeconomic Push and Pull Limits Bitcoin’s Uptrend Even as Risk Appetite Grows

Macroeconomic Push and Pull Limits Bitcoin’s Uptrend Even as Risk Appetite Grows

Bitget-RWA2025/09/27 01:30
By:Coin World

- Bitcoin remains capped below $110,000 despite gold/equity gains, constrained by macroeconomic factors like global liquidity, ISM Manufacturing Index, and U.S.-China tensions. - Raoul Pal argues extended liquidity cycles and delayed ISM peaks (vs. 2020-2021) prolong Bitcoin's bull run into 2026, with TGA liquidity drains and debt maturity shifts key drivers. - U.S.-China trade tensions triggered 3-8% altcoin corrections, yet institutional holders increased BTC holdings, contrasting subdued retail particip

Macroeconomic Push and Pull Limits Bitcoin’s Uptrend Even as Risk Appetite Grows image 0

Despite recent advances in gold and stock markets, Bitcoin’s value has struggled to break above $110,000, reigniting discussions about what’s holding back its growth. Experts highlight several macroeconomic factors at play, such as shifts in global liquidity, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, and ongoing U.S.-China geopolitical tensions. Raoul Pal, Real Vision’s co-founder and a prominent macro analyst, believes this current Bitcoin bull run differs fundamentally from previous cycles, with liquidity trends potentially pushing the market’s peak out to 2026

compared to earlier cycles, as noted by Pal and Julien Bittel in their analysis “Liquidity Wave Extends Crypto Bull Run Into 2026” Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel, “Liquidity Wave Extends Crypto Bull Run Into 2026,” *NewsBTC* [ 1 ].

Pal’s perspective centers on the relationship between worldwide liquidity and the ISM index, which tracks U.S. manufacturing health. He observes that Bitcoin’s price has historically moved in sync with the ISM, especially during periods of economic growth. However, with the ISM still below 50—a sign of contraction—Bitcoin’s potential for gains remains limited. Pal attributes this to a lengthened business cycle, where debt maturities have shifted from four to five years, postponing the liquidity and risk-taking peak Raoul Pal, “Bitcoin Market Cycle Extended to 5 Years,” *The Crypto Basic* [ 2 ]. This stands in contrast to the 2020–2021 period, when both liquidity and the ISM peaked together, resulting in a shorter bull run Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel, “Liquidity Wave Extends Crypto Bull Run Into 2026,” *NewsBTC* [ 1 ].

Liquidity trends add further complexity. Since mid-July, the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) has rebuilt rapidly, pulling about $500 billion out of the system and reducing liquidity Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel, “Liquidity Wave Extends Crypto Bull Run Into 2026,” *NewsBTC* [ 1 ]. This external drain has hit risk assets like Bitcoin particularly hard, as they depend on favorable macro conditions. At the same time, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has injected $33 billion into global markets, partially counteracting the U.S. tightening. These differing monetary approaches have created a mixed backdrop for crypto, with institutional players weighing U.S. rate hikes against China’s more cautious easing.

The trade relationship between the U.S. and China is also a significant factor. Recent developments, such as the U.S. reimposing tariffs and stalled talks, have led to a 3–8% drop in altcoins and a 3.9% decline in Bitcoin from its record high. Still, institutional investors remain optimistic. Major Bitcoin holders (wallets with 1,000–10,000 BTC) have increased their positions, showing confidence even amid economic uncertainty. In contrast, retail involvement is low, with less than 20% of Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) held by short-term traders—far below the 50% seen at previous market peaks.

Bitcoin’s connection to the stock market has also grown stronger. According to the CME Group, since 2020, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 has moved from neutral to a positive 0.5 Justin Sun and PBoC Analysis, “Liquidity Injections and Crypto Markets,” *CoinEdition* [ 6 ]. This shift highlights increased institutional adoption and integration into portfolios, with Bitcoin now often seen as an extension of equity risk rather than a separate hedge. If global liquidity and the ISM index continue to rise, analysts like Pal suggest Bitcoin could surpass $300,000, provided these favorable trends persist CME Group, “Bitcoin’s Evolving Relationship with Equities,” *OpenMarkets* [ 4 ]. However, this outlook depends on the ISM climbing to between 56 and 65, a milestone that may still be months away CME Group, “Bitcoin’s Evolving Relationship with Equities,” *OpenMarkets* [ 4 ].

The future remains unpredictable. While liquidity boosts and a weaker dollar are supportive for crypto, risks from geopolitics and TGA-driven liquidity drains could keep volatility elevated. Pal stresses the need for patience, advising investors to avoid leverage and to align their investment timelines with broader economic cycles CME Group, “Bitcoin’s Evolving Relationship with Equities,” *OpenMarkets* [ 4 ]. With the U.S. Federal Reserve facing the challenge of refinancing $9 trillion in debt over the next year, the interplay between monetary policy and crypto liquidity is likely to shape Bitcoin’s direction in the months ahead Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel, “Liquidity Wave Extends Crypto Bull Run Into 2026,” *NewsBTC* [ 1 ].

0

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

PoolX: Earn new token airdrops
Lock your assets and earn 10%+ APR
Lock now!

You may also like

Why is MUTM's DeFi approach drawing in $18.9 million and 18,000 investors in 2025

- Mutuum Finance (MUTM) has raised $18.9M from 18,200 investors via a 250% presale price surge to $0.035 in Phase 6. - Its dual-lending model combines peer-to-contract and peer-to-peer mechanisms to optimize liquidity and capital efficiency. - Phase 6 nearing 99% completion highlights demand for MUTM's automated, intermediary-free lending via Ethereum-based smart contracts. - The project plans Q4 2025 launch of its public lending protocol on Sepolia testnet, emphasizing transparent decentralized ownership.

Bitget-RWA2025/11/22 10:26
Why is MUTM's DeFi approach drawing in $18.9 million and 18,000 investors in 2025

Global authorities suspend the growth of Biometric Blockchain due to worries about data privacy

- Worldcoin (WLD) fell 14% amid regulatory crackdowns, token unlocks, and market weakness, outperforming crypto's 9% decline. - Colombia, Philippines, and Thailand ordered operations halted and biometric data deleted over privacy concerns. - 37M WLD tokens ($25M) unlocked recently, worsening sell pressure as price consolidates near $0.63 resistance. - Analysts predict $0.75–$0.85 by 2025 if regulations clarify, but warn of potential drops to $0.26 amid unresolved compliance risks. - Project's viability hin

Bitget-RWA2025/11/22 10:26
Global authorities suspend the growth of Biometric Blockchain due to worries about data privacy

Bitcoin News Update: Aave's ETHLend 2.0 Disrupts DeFi's Dependence on Wrapped Tokens by Introducing Native Bitcoin

- Aave founder Stani Kulechov announced ETHLend 2.0's 2026 relaunch using native Bitcoin as collateral, diverging from wrapped tokens. - The hybrid P2P-liquidity pool model aims to enhance DeFi efficiency while reducing synthetic asset reliance through cross-chain BTC integration. - This revival aligns with growing institutional demand for non-wrapped BTC and could restore utility for the legacy LEND token. - Despite bearish market conditions, the move signals confidence in Bitcoin's foundational role for

Bitget-RWA2025/11/22 10:26
Bitcoin News Update: Aave's ETHLend 2.0 Disrupts DeFi's Dependence on Wrapped Tokens by Introducing Native Bitcoin

The Rapid Rise of ZK Technology and What It Means for Cryptocurrency Markets

- ZK proof ecosystems saw 2025 breakthroughs in scalability, institutional adoption, and on-chain activity, reshaping blockchain infrastructure and crypto markets. - Projects like zkSync Era (27M+ monthly txns) and StarkNet (tripled TVL) demonstrated ZK-rollups' capacity to handle 15,000+ TPS, accelerating Ethereum's Layer 2 dominance. - Institutional giants including Deutsche Bank , Sony , and Nike integrated ZKP solutions for compliance, with Polygon securing $1B+ in ZKP development funding. - ZKP market

Bitget-RWA2025/11/22 10:26