Bitcoin Consolidates as Exchange Reserves Fall, Supply Tightens
Contents
Toggle- Quick Breakdown
- Spot reserves decline, supply tightens
- Derivatives lead, spot activity lags
Quick Breakdown
- Bitcoin consolidates near $130K as short-term holders take profits, while exchange reserves drop to 2.49M BTC, signaling tightening supply.
- Spot outflows and accumulation trends support price recovery from $109K to $118K, though derivatives-driven momentum raises volatility risks.
- Sustainable upside depends on spot market participation, with on-chain data showing a growing divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin is consolidating within the short-term holder MVRV pricing corridor, a range that tracks the profitability of recent buyers. The upper boundary of this band, near $130,000, has become a profit-taking zone for short-term holders. Despite volatility, Bitcoin has held above its realized price level throughout 2024, underscoring persistent bullish sentiment and structural market strength.
Bitcoin in Equilibrium With Growth Potential to $130K
“The upper boundary of this range (+1σ) currently runs around $130K and serves as a zone where short-term holders more actively lock in profits.” – By @AxelAdlerJr pic.twitter.com/m1oJh4tj7U
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 2, 2025
Spot reserves decline, supply tightens
On-chain data highlights a clear trend in September: steady exchange outflows. Spot reserves dropped from 2.61 million BTC to 2.49 million BTC during the month, a decline that coincided with Bitcoin’s price recovery from $109,000 to $118,000. The contraction in exchange balances signals fewer coins readily available for trading, historically aligning with accumulation phases and a healthier market structure.
The tightening of supply provides a constructive backdrop for price action. With fewer BTC on exchanges, immediate selling pressure is reduced, creating conditions that support further upside. Analysts note that if this trend continues alongside stable ETF inflows and resilient futures open interest, the case for a push toward $130,000 strengthens.
Derivatives lead, spot activity lags
While supply dynamics favour bulls, the rally has been primarily derivatives-led. Futures activity dominates trading volumes, leaving spot volumes relatively muted. This concentration in leveraged markets raises sensitivity to funding shifts, open interest imbalances, and liquidation cascades, which could inject sharp volatility into the market’s trajectory.
Market observers caution that while falling spot reserves point to accumulation, the reliance on derivatives for price momentum means short-term swings remain closely tied to leverage dynamics. A sustainable move higher will likely require greater participation from spot markets to balance speculative flows.
Meanwhile, on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows a growing divergence between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)—a development that may shape the next wave of capital rotation in digital assets . This time, reserves are flat, signaling that a significant portion of supply remains liquid and potentially available for selling.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
AAVE gains 4.1% over the past week as Avail Nexus debuts and cross-chain advancements emerge
- AAVE rose 4.1% in 7 days amid Avail Nexus Mainnet launch, enhancing cross-chain liquidity for DeFi. - Avail's Nexus connects Ethereum , Solana , and EVM chains, enabling unified asset flows across fragmented blockchains. - Aave benefits from modular infrastructure trends, supporting multi-chain operations without compromising security or efficiency. - Despite 1-year 39.84% decline, analysts highlight Aave's strategic position in evolving cross-chain DeFi ecosystems.
The crypto industry mobilizes: $3.2 million for Hong Kong disaster victims

LUNA Rises 0.68% on November 29, 2025 as Short- and Long-Term Results Show Mixed Trends
- LUNA rose 0.68% in 24 hours to $0.0745 on Nov. 29, 2025, but fell 20.45% over 30 days and 82.08% in a year. - Analysts predict continued pressure unless on-chain activity or market sentiment improves, as Terra faces post-2022 collapse challenges. - Macroeconomic trends and bearish crypto sentiment weigh on LUNA, with institutional investors hesitant to re-enter at current valuations. - Market watchers monitor for adoption boosts or protocol upgrades to stabilize LUNA’s volatile, high-risk profile.

YFI Gains 1.15% as Market Levels Off Following Month-Long Decline
- YFI rose 1.15% in 24 hours to $4224, showing short-term stabilization amid 10.77% monthly and 47.45% annual declines. - Spirit Blockchain Capital appointed Lewis Bateman as interim CFO after Inder Saini's departure, focusing on blockchain financial infrastructure and tech licensing. - Bitget donated $12M HKD for Hong Kong fire victims, while GeeFi's GEE Token presale hit 80% completion with 700+ investors. - Evercore ISI cut Gemini Space Station's price target to $15 from $30 due to crypto market pressur

