The 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will be reflected in the payments beneficiaries receive starting in January. This adjustment is intended to assist retirees, their partners, people with disabilities, and other recipients in managing the increasing prices of everyday goods and services.
To clarify, the exact figure for the 2026 Social Security COLA is still unknown. The official announcement will not be made until mid-October, after the release of September’s inflation statistics.
Still, we have a reasonable estimate of what to expect. The Social Security COLA is determined by consumer price index (CPI) data from the third quarter, and the figures for July and August are already available.
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Given the current data and anticipated inflation for September, the Senior Citizens League estimates a 2.7% COLA for 2026. Keep in mind, though, that this could shift by about 0.1% in either direction if inflation numbers differ from expectations.
With this in mind, the typical retired worker receives roughly $2,000 per month from Social Security. Let’s explore how the 2026 COLA could affect someone receiving this average benefit.
How a $2,000 Social Security benefit would change with the 2026 COLA
In short, if your current Social Security payment is $2,000 per month—the approximate national average—a 2.7% COLA would raise your monthly benefit to $2,054.
If you are younger than 65, that’s essentially all you need to know. However, there are additional factors to consider for those aged 65 and above.
Here’s the reason: Most Social Security recipients aged 65 or older have their Medicare Part B premiums deducted directly from their monthly payments, much like how employers withhold health insurance premiums from paychecks. Medicare Part B premiums are expected to see a notable increase in 2026.
For 2025, the standard Medicare Part B premium is $185 per month for those who are not classified as higher-income retirees. In 2026, this premium is projected to climb to $206.50 per month, which is nearly a 12% jump.
Therefore, if your Social Security benefit is $2,000 per month and you pay your Medicare Part B premium from this amount, your net benefit in 2025 would be $1,815 each month.
If the 2026 COLA increases your benefit to $2,054, but the Medicare premium also rises as projected, your take-home Social Security payment would be $1,847.50 per month. This is a $32.50 monthly increase, not the full $54 that the COLA alone might suggest.
Key takeaways regarding the 2026 Social Security COLA
Of course, the impact will vary for each individual, and this example simply illustrates how someone with a benefit close to the national average might see their payments change. If your monthly Social Security benefit is much higher or lower than $2,000, the combined effect of the COLA and the new Medicare premium will alter your purchasing power differently.
Ultimately, whether the 2026 Social Security COLA will be sufficient to offset rising living expenses is a complex issue. There’s a strong case that costs affecting seniors most—such as healthcare—are increasing faster than 2.7%. Still, understanding how the COLA and Medicare Part B premium adjustments will influence your retirement income can help you plan and budget for 2026.
