Solana News Today: Solana's Upward Momentum Hangs in the Balance: Institutional Excitement Faces Off Against Technical Warning Signs

Solana has climbed past $204, fueled by increasing institutional interest and positive on-chain sentiment, though mixed signals point to the possibility of a retracement that could challenge important support zones. The digital asset, which has advanced more than 6% over the last week, finds itself at a crossroads as strong fundamentals clash with bearish technical patterns, creating a crucial juncture for market participants.

Recent figures show strong appetite for Solana’s ecosystem. The Total Value Locked (TVL) on

reached $11.83 billion as of Monday, approaching its September high of $13.22 billion, based on a . This expansion aligns with a series of institutional milestones, such as Gemini introducing a credit card with 4% instant rewards, Fidelity opening retail access to SOL, and Hong Kong granting approval for the first Solana spot ETFs. Additionally, Bitwise’s new BSOL ETP—the first U.S. spot Solana exchange-traded product—plans to stake all assets internally, utilizing Helius’ platform to target an average 7% staking yield, according to a .

Western Union’s upcoming USDPT stablecoin, which is scheduled to launch on Solana’s network in early 2026, further highlights the blockchain’s appeal to institutions, according to a

. This dollar-pegged token, issued by Anchorage Digital Bank, is designed to enable quick and affordable cross-border transactions throughout Western Union’s 200-country reach, strengthening Solana’s reputation as a scalable solution for global finance, as detailed in an .

From a technical perspective, Solana’s price has found a base near a rising trendline, with bulls targeting $230 if the asset can close above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average ($202.88). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52 points to ongoing bullish momentum, while Coinglass data reveals a long-to-short ratio of 1.07—the highest in a month—signaling increased speculative activity.

Yet, bearish signals are becoming more pronounced. Blockchain analytics indicate that long-term holders are reducing their positions, with Glassnode’s HODL Waves showing a drop in wallets holding SOL for 1–2 years from 20.33% to 18.48% this month, according to a

. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has turned negative, suggesting weak institutional accumulation despite recent price dips. Experts caution that if Solana falls below $192 (a 3% decrease), it could prompt a further decline toward $182 or $161, undermining the bullish scenario unless the price closes above $206.

The conflicting market signals mirror broader uncertainty. DeepSeek AI forecasts a possible rally to $1,200 by the end of the month, citing increased ETF speculation and a robust infrastructure ready for adoption in a

, while DeLeion Capital’s quantitative models report daily SOL returns reaching up to 1.55% by leveraging algorithmic strategies amid volatility, according to a . On the other hand, some investors are shifting to alternatives like Remittix (RTX), a PayFi initiative that delivers practical crypto applications, as mentioned in a .

With the Federal Reserve’s next policy announcement approaching, Solana’s future path will depend on the balance between institutional inflows and ongoing retail participation. A 3% dip could challenge the resolve of committed holders, but the network’s growing ecosystem—including Western Union’s USDPT and anticipated ETF approvals—positions Solana as a significant force in the evolving cryptocurrency sector.