Bitcoin News Update: Bitcoin’s Six-Year Bull Run Ends Abruptly in ‘Red October’ Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Increased Leverage-Induced Sell-Off

In early November 2025, Bitcoin’s value plunged below $109,000, ending a six-year streak of positive Octobers—often called “Uptober”—and marking the first negative October since 2018. This sharp drop, fueled by geopolitical unrest and the unwinding of leveraged trades, has shaken investor confidence and reignited discussions about Bitcoin’s long-term reliability.

The sell-off accelerated on October 10 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans for significant tariffs on Chinese imports, triggering a global risk-off reaction,

. Bitcoin tumbled from just above $120,000 to nearly $105,000 in a matter of days, with derivatives exchanges liquidating tens of billions in positions. This crash wiped out more than $500 billion in market capitalization, and although there was a modest recovery, prices failed to return to early October highs. Analysts, according to CoinDesk, point to excessive leverage in crypto markets as the main culprit, rather than issues unique to digital assets.

Traditionally, October has been a strong month for

, maintaining a bullish trend from 2019 through 2024, CoinDesk noted. The downturn in 2025, however, suggests a change in market behavior. “Seasonal trends are tendencies, not guarantees,” said Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, highlighting that Bitcoin’s realized cap—which measures the total value of coins based on their last transaction price—rose by $8 billion in October, surpassing $1.1 trillion, . Despite strong on-chain inflows, the rebound lacks the vigor of previous cycles, with ETFs and companies like MicroStrategy slowing their large-scale acquisitions, TradingView observed.

Large holder activity is adding further complexity. Blockchain data reveals that long-term Bitcoin owners are selling at a faster pace, with the average age of coins sold now at about 100 days, up from 30 days,

. Bitcoin on-chain analyst James Check described this as a “passing of the torch,” where veteran holders are giving way to traditional finance (TradFi) investors who prefer less volatile markets. At the same time, new whales—those accumulating over 1,000 BTC—now account for 45% of the Whale Realized Cap, but are facing unrealized losses due to higher entry prices, .

The changing structure of the market is also visible in institutional participation. Bitcoin’s realized price recently climbed above $110,000, reflecting increased demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries, but analysts warn that a sustained recovery will require renewed buying from these players, TradingView reported. Bitfinex analysts believe Bitcoin could reach $140,000 in November if ETF inflows pick up and the Federal Reserve implements two rate cuts in the fourth quarter, TradingView added. Still, risks remain, including Trump’s tariff threats and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, BeinCrypto pointed out.

Despite recent volatility, some analysts maintain that Bitcoin’s core fundamentals are strong. Expanding mining operations and a rising hashrate—which signals greater network security—point to continued long-term optimism, TradingView noted. The $314 million ASIC hardware purchase by Trump-affiliated American Bitcoin in August highlights growing investment in infrastructure, TradingView added. However, the market’s sensitivity to global economic trends suggests that future price movements may increasingly mirror traditional business cycles rather than the four-year halving rhythm,

.

As the crypto sector faces this pivotal moment, investors are watching closely for triggers such as changes in Fed policy and renewed ETF inflows. For now, Bitcoin is consolidating around $107,000—down 2.5% over the past day,

reflecting the delicate balance between bearish forces and lingering optimism.