Fed Faces December Crossroads: Balancing Employment and Inflation Amid Uncertain Data

Bitget App

Trade smarter

Bitget

News

Markets

Fed Faces December Crossroads: Balancing Employment and Inflation Amid Uncertain Data

Bitget-RWA2025/11/14 22:44

By:Bitget-RWA

- U.S. Fed's December rate cut probability dropped below 50% as inflation, labor data delays, and policy uncertainty complicate decisions. - Powell emphasized FOMC divisions between easing rates for jobs vs. maintaining rates to control inflation, exacerbated by government shutdown delays. - Goldman Sachs forecasts three 2025-2026 cuts to 3-3.25%, contrasting with market's 67% December cut chance and Powell's cautious stance. - December meeting could shape 2026 markets: a pause risks labor strains, while a

Prediction markets and financial indicators now show that the likelihood of the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering interest rates at the December FOMC meeting has dipped below 50%. This drop comes as the central bank faces ongoing uncertainty regarding inflation, labor market trends, and delayed economic reports, all of which complicate its policy decisions. As of November 11,

Polymarket data indicated that 68% of participants expected a 25-basis-point rate cut

, while 30% anticipated no change, and only 2% foresaw a more significant 50-basis-point reduction. At the same time,

CME Group's FedWatch tool, which measures implied probabilities

suggested a 63.6% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a 36.4% probability that rates would remain in the 3.75-4% range.

Fed Faces December Crossroads: Balancing Employment and Inflation Amid Uncertain Data image 0

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has

made it clear that additional rate reductions are not assured

. During his press conference after the meeting, Powell noted that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains split between those favoring rate cuts to aid the labor market and those wanting to keep rates elevated to fight inflation. This internal disagreement has been intensified by the recent U.S. government shutdown, which postponed the release of essential economic data, including labor and inflation figures for October and November.

Although some reports may be released before the December 9-10 meeting

, crucial data might still arrive too late to influence the Fed’s decision.

These shifting market expectations highlight broader concerns about the economy.

Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, has kept a more assertive outlook

, projecting three rate cuts between December 2025 and June 2026, with the final rate settling at 3-3.25% by mid-2026. The firm’s analysts believe that lower rates would increase liquidity, which could benefit riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. This view is consistent with recent patterns, as crypto markets have experienced volatility amid mixed signals from central banks.

Bitcoin’s decline below $100,000 in late October

, for example, underscored how sensitive the sector is to expectations about interest rates.

Investor opinions are also divided. The Seeking Alpha Sentiment Survey found that subscribers were evenly split on whether there would be further rate cuts in 2025, which contrasts with Powell’s more cautious stance.

The survey, conducted before the October FOMC meeting

, now seems to match the current 67% chance of a December cut shown by CME FedWatch—a notable decrease from the 90% probability seen in October. This change highlights the difficulty of making predictions in a climate dominated by data delays and policy uncertainty.

The outcome of the December meeting will be crucial for setting the tone for markets in 2026. Should the Fed choose to hold rates steady, it may signal a longer period of tight policy, reinforcing its commitment to controlling inflation but potentially putting pressure on the labor market. On the other hand, a 25-basis-point cut would indicate a shift toward supporting economic growth and could trigger a broader market rally. With the government shutdown close to ending, the economic data released in the coming weeks will play a key role in shaping the Fed’s next moves.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

PoolX: Earn new token airdrops

Lock your assets and earn 10%+ APR

Lock now!

- U.S. lawmakers propose expanding CFTC's crypto oversight via a bill reclassifying spot trading, diverging from SEC's enforcement approach. - Harvard University invests $443M in BlackRock's IBIT ETF, reflecting institutional confidence in crypto as a legitimate asset class. - DeFi projects like Mutuum Finance raise $18.7M in presales, leveraging regulatory momentum and transparent on-chain credit systems. - RockToken's infrastructure-backed crypto contracts attract long-term investors with structured yiel

Bitget-RWA•2025/11/16 03:00

Bitcoin News Update: CFTC's Broader Role in Crypto Regulation Ignites Discussion on Clearer Rules

DASH Aster DEX's Latest On-Chain Growth and What It Means for DeFi Liquidity

- DASH Aster DEX leads 2025 DeFi shift with hybrid AMM-CEX model and multi-chain support (BNB, Ethereum , Solana), boosting TVL to $1.399B and Q3 daily trading volumes of $27.7B. - Platform's 1,650% ASTER token price surge post-TGE attracted 330,000 new wallets, with 94% of BSC-USD volume ($2B/day) driving institutional adoption via Binance/YZi partnerships. - ASTER token mechanics enable 80% margin trading, 5-7% staking rewards, and governance rights, while annual 5-7% fee burns create scarcity and align

Bitget-RWA•2025/11/16 03:00

DASH Aster DEX's Latest On-Chain Growth and What It Means for DeFi Liquidity

Astar 2.0: Leading a New Generation of DeFi and Cross-Chain Advancements

- Astar 2.0 introduces a zkEVM mainnet and cross-chain interoperability, slashing gas fees and enabling 150,000 TPS with 2025 scalability goals. - Strategic partnerships with Mazda, Japan Airlines, and Sony demonstrate blockchain's real-world applications in logistics, loyalty programs, and digital asset tokenization. - Q3 2025 data shows $2.38M DeFi TVL growth and 20% active wallet increase, alongside a $3.16M institutional ASTR token acquisition. - The platform aims to solidify its role as a foundational

Bitget-RWA•2025/11/16 02:44

Astar 2.0: Leading a New Generation of DeFi and Cross-Chain Advancements

Aster DEX Introduces New On-Ramp: Transforming Retail Participation in DeFi

- Aster DEX integrates institutional-grade custody and privacy tech (zero-knowledge proofs) to bridge retail-institutional DeFi gaps via BNB Chain partnerships. - TVL surged to $2.18B by late 2025 through yield-bearing stablecoins and hidden orders, attracting both retail and institutional liquidity. - Despite compliance gaps and wash trading concerns, Aster's Binance alignment and Coinbase listing signals growing institutional validation.

Bitget-RWA•2025/11/16 02:44