Fidelity Says BTC’s Q4 Slump Is About Taxes — Not Whale Dumping

Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter performance has been far from the explosive year-end rallies that usually excite traders.

Instead, BTC has been stuck in a lukewarm range while assets like gold — normally the quiet guest at the party — have rallied nearly 60%.

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With Bitcoin up just around 10% and major stock indexes outperforming it, investors have been scrambling for reasons behind this unexpected slowdown.

Are long-term holders really selling? Not so fast

The common explanation is simple: early Bitcoin whales — the ones who bought BTC under $1,000 or even under $100 — must be unloading their bags. And yes, on-chain data shows that some long-term holders have been selling since July.

But Fidelity throws a curveball here. According to analyst PlanB, the selling pressure isn’t coming from the original whale class at all.

I see stories about "old whales dumping bitcoin", but the data does not support those stories.

Almost 7 million BTC transacted onchain in 2025. Most BTC came from 2024 transactions. One big 84k BTC 2011 whale. And some 2017-2023 sellers. But that's it, business as usual. pic.twitter.com/w2aHjJ3XmD

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 12, 2025

Instead, it’s coming from 2024 buyers who accumulated Bitcoin at $60K–$70K, and are now taking profits or cutting losses.

That alone challenges one of the most popular storylines in crypto right now.

The “Bitcoin IPO moment”? Maybe not this time

Another favored theory is the so-called “Bitcoin IPO moment,” where veteran whales supposedly distribute their coins to ETFs and corporate treasuries — like handing out shares before a major acquisition. Many see this as a sign Bitcoin is maturing.

But Fidelity’s Chris Kuiper, VP of Digital Assets Research, argues that a much less dramatic force is driving recent selling:

“Long-term holders are cashing out to settle their tax bills and reposition for the new year.”

"Who is selling?"

Is the number one question I've been getting regarding #bitcoin 's continued price pressure against a backdrop of visible buying (by ETPs, corporations etc.)

I'm not unique in suggesting it's the long-term holders (or HODLers).

But one data point that gives… pic.twitter.com/9PVoolrtwm

— Chris Kuiper, CFA (@ChrisJKuiper) November 12, 2025

In other words, what looks like whale capitulation may simply be ordinary year-end tax planning and portfolio rotation.

Selling still hasn’t slowed

Supply Active metrics confirm that sellers aren’t running out of steam yet.

Analysts note that in bull markets, whales typically sell into strength, while in bearish or defensive phases, selling slows down.

Right now, it looks like buyers are the ones pulling back, not whales emptying their wallets.

Don’t forget the macro punch: the rising U.S. dollar

Adding pressure to BTC’s Q4 performance is the resurgence of the U.S. dollar.

Analyst Willy Woo points to the climbing DXY — the key index for dollar strength — noting that a firming dollar tends to push investors toward more traditional “safe” assets.

Despite losing roughly 7% of its purchasing power annually over long periods, the dollar still dominates as the global safe haven. And Bitcoin historically struggles when the dollar flexes.

Could relief be coming?

Market watchers hope the possible end of the U.S. government shutdown could unlock liquidity and give Bitcoin some breathing room.

But as every seasoned crypto trader knows, sentiment in this market can shift in a heartbeat.

So while whales continue to dominate the headlines, Fidelity argues they’re not the villains this time. Instead, Bitcoin’s Q4 slump seems to come from something far less dramatic:

Taxes. Rebalancing. Boring but powerful end-of-year mechanics.

Sometimes the real market movers aren’t giant whales — just accountants with calculators.