HBAR's bears encounter a comeback as buyers set their sights on the neckline

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HBAR's bears encounter a comeback as buyers set their sights on the neckline

Bitget-RWA2025/11/15 18:34

By:Bitget-RWA

- HBAR's 11% drop breached a key neckline, triggering bear trap concerns as 73% of leveraged positions are now short-biased. - A bullish RSI divergence and $5.37M inflow into the Canary HBAR ETF suggest potential short-covering above $0.160. - Bitget's $16.7M short dominance creates asymmetric risk, with a rebound above $0.160 likely to trigger forced liquidations. - However, a breakdown below $0.160 could validate the bearish pattern, targeting $0.113 with strong on-balance volume support.

HBAR's latest price decline has sparked discussion among traders regarding the possibility of a bear trap, as both technical signals and market sentiment point to a potential reversal that could put short-sellers at risk. The altcoin experienced an 11% decrease over the last week, breaking below the neckline of its head-and-shoulders formation on November 13,

a development that many analysts had predicted

. Yet, the absence of continued downward momentum and indications that selling pressure is fading have led to doubts about whether the bearish outlook will materialize as anticipated .

The argument for a bear trap is supported by the increasing disparity in leveraged trades and inconsistencies in on-chain data. Derivatives statistics indicate that

short positions now account for 73%

of leveraged

HBAR

trades, a proportion that often signals heightened risk of abrupt price reversals . At the same time,

the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has displayed a bullish divergence

, as the price reached a new low while the RSI marked a higher low between October 17 and November 14—a setup that has historically preceded short-term recoveries . Should buyers manage to reclaim the $0.160 neckline, it could set off a wave of short liquidations, potentially driving the price up to $0.180 or higher .

HBAR's bears encounter a comeback as buyers set their sights on the neckline image 0

Adding to the uncertainty is the recent launch of

Wrapped Bitcoin

(WBTC) on the

Hedera

network, which coincided with a $5.37 million inflow into the Canary HBAR ETF. This event, along with growing institutional interest, has boosted liquidity and eased some of the immediate bearish pressure . Nevertheless, derivatives traders remain cautious, as

Open Interest (OI) in HBAR futures has dropped 5.96%

over the past day, indicating a pullback in speculative trading .

The uneven distribution of positions in the derivatives market increases the likelihood of a short squeeze. On Bitget, for example, short contracts total $16.71 million, far surpassing the $6.09 million in long positions . This heavy tilt toward shorting creates a scenario where even a modest rise above $0.160 could prompt short-sellers to exit, pushing prices higher. A move past $0.180 would likely intensify this effect, potentially negating the bearish head-and-shoulders setup and shifting momentum upward .

Still, the bearish perspective remains plausible. If HBAR cannot maintain support at $0.160 and falls below $0.155,

the strength of the RSI divergence diminishes

, making a projected 28% drop toward $0.113 increasingly probable . On-balance volume (OBV) analysis also backs this view, as repeated attempts to hold an ascending trendline have failed to attract significant buying, indicating that bullish enthusiasm may be waning . A decisive break below $0.160 with strong volume would confirm the bearish pattern and likely trigger forced liquidations among leveraged long positions.

The direction of the market will hinge on whether buyers can protect crucial support levels or if sellers regain dominance. For now, the standoff near the neckline highlights the ongoing contest among algorithmic traders, institutional investors, and retail participants, each holding different expectations for HBAR's future movement.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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