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Telegram (TON) crypto outlook: can bears keep control?

Telegram (TON) crypto outlook: can bears keep control?

CryptoNewsNetCryptoNewsNet2025/11/17 12:21
By:en.cryptonomist.ch
Telegram (TON) crypto has entered a phase where the broader market mood is almost as important as the chart itself.

With daily technicals pointing to pressure from sellers yet shorter time frames hinting at stabilization, traders are trying to understand whether this is just a pause before another leg down or the start of a deeper basing process.

Summary

  • Summary
  • Telegram TON crypto: Market Context and Direction
  • Technical Outlook: reading the overall setup
  • Intraday Perspective and Telegram (TON) crypto Momentum
  • Key Levels and Market Reactions
  • Future Scenarios and Investment Outlook

Summary

The daily structure for TONUSDT is clearly bearish, with price trading below the 20, 50 and 200day exponential moving averages. Momentum on the higher time frame remains fragile, as the daily RSI sits in the low 30s, signalling persistent downside bias rather than capitulation.

Moreover, the MACD on the oneday chart stays slightly negative, underscoring a lack of strong bullish followthrough. Volatility on the daily is contained but present, with price hovering closer to the lower Bollinger Band.

Meanwhile, intraday charts are much more balanced, with hourly and 15minute regimes described as neutral and oscillators around midrange levels. This contrast suggests shortterm traders are willing to nibble at these levels, while longerterm participants remain cautious. Overall, liquidity across the crypto market is soft, and sentiment is stressed, which may limit aggressive risktaking.

Telegram TON crypto: Market Context and Direction

The broader environment is not particularly supportive for highbeta altcoins. Bitcoin dominance sits above 57%, pointing to a phase where capital prefers the relative safety of the main benchmark rather than rotating aggressively into alternatives. Moreover, total crypto market capitalization is just under 3.33 trillion dollars and has slipped by around 0.7% over the last 24 hours, confirming a modest riskoff tone rather than a euphoric meltup.

That said, the most striking macro signal is sentiment: the Fear & Greed Index stands at 14, firmly in the Extreme Fear bucket.

Historically, such readings often coincide with capitulation risk but also with the early stages of future opportunity, because many weak hands have already left the market. For this asset, the combination of high Bitcoin dominance and extreme fear implies that buyers are highly selective and demand clear technical evidence before committing fresh capital.

On the ecosystem side, activity on TONbased DeFi venues like STON.fi and DeDust remains meaningful, even though average fees over the last month have declined sharply.

This points to a cooling but still functional environment, where speculative intensity has eased yet infrastructure and onchain usage continue in the background.

Technical Outlook: reading the overall setup

On the daily chart, TONUSDT trades at 1.83, below the 20day EMA at 2.02, the 50day at 2.26 and the 200day at 2.91.

This stacked configuration, with shorter EMAs below longer ones and price under all of them, reflects a mature downtrend rather than a simple pullback. It implies that rallies into the EMA cluster are likely to meet supply until buyers can reclaim at least the first moving average.

The RSI 14 on the oneday timeframe prints around 33.8. This is not yet extreme oversold territory, but it is clearly below the midline and therefore confirms downside momentum. It suggests sellers remain in control, although the lack of a deep oversold reading also indicates that a dramatic short squeeze is not yet being forced by positioning.

MACD on the daily is slightly negative, with the line at about -0.12, the signal at -0.10 and a small negative histogram. The narrow spread between line and signal, alongside the shallow histogram, illustrates a phase of bearish but fading momentum. In other words, the prevailing trend is lower, yet the strength of that move is no longer accelerating.

Bollinger Bands add another layer. The midline coincides near 2.04, with the upper band around 2.35 and the lower band close to 1.74. Price sitting near the lower band indicates that the asset is trading in the weaker part of its recent range, which fits a pressuredominated market regime. However, the fact that price is not hugging the band aggressively suggests a controlled rather than panicked decline.

The daily ATR14 is about 0.13, modest relative to the absolute level of price. This points to contained volatility, where moves are meaningful but not disorderly. For swing traders, it implies that risk can be sized with some confidence, yet sharp breaks beyond recent ranges would still be notable.

Finally, the daily pivot sits exactly at 1.83. With first resistance just above at 1.85 and initial support around 1.81, price is hovering at a balance point inside a broader downtrend. This configuration often precedes either a short relief bounce from support or a clean continuation if that floor gives way.

Intraday Perspective and Telegram (TON) crypto Momentum

Meanwhile, the intraday picture is less gloomy than the daily chart. On the hourly timeframe, TONUSDT trades very close to its 20 and 50period EMAs, which are themselves clustered around the current price. The 200period EMA on this timeframe, at 1.93, remains higher, keeping the mediumterm trend tilted lower, but the recent hours show an attempt to stabilize.

The hourly RSI stands near 52.5, essentially neutral, suggesting a shortterm meanreversion phase rather than impulsive selling or buying. As a result, intraday traders face a market that oscillates around equilibrium, even as the highertimeframe direction points down. The hourly MACD is flat, with line and signal nearly identical and the histogram around zero, reinforcing this sideways, indecisive mood.

On the 15minute chart, conditions are even more compressed. Price sits right on its short EMAs, RSI around 54, and MACD neutral. Bollinger Bands are tight, and ATR is only 0.01, highlighting volatility contraction. Such compression phases frequently precede more dynamic moves, meaning day traders should watch for a break out of the shortterm range as an early signal of the next impulse.

Key Levels and Market Reactions

From a practical standpoint, the area between 1.81 and 1.83 acts as immediate support. If the asset repeatedly holds above this region, it would reinforce the idea of a shortterm defensive base, potentially enabling a bounce towards the Bollinger midline around 2.04.

On the upside, the region around 1.85 serves as the first resistance zone that traders will monitor. A sustained push above this level, especially if accompanied by rising volume and a daily close back above the 20day EMA, would hint at an early trendstabilization attempt. Conversely, a decisive break below 1.81, followed by price leaning again on the lower Bollinger Band near 1.74, would confirm that the bears remain in firm control.

Future Scenarios and Investment Outlook

Overall, Telegram TON crypto currently sits in a controlled downtrend, yet not in a state of outright panic. The daily structure is negative, but shortterm charts reveal a market catching its breath and compressing volatility.

In such an environment, patient investors might wait for clearer signs of trend confirmation: either a reclaim of key EMAs with improving RSI and MACD, or a breakdown of support that opens the door to lower levels.

Active traders, on the other hand, may look to exploit the tight intraday ranges and potential breakout from the current volatility squeeze, while remaining mindful of extreme fear in the wider market.

Risk management remains paramount: in a landscape where Bitcoin is absorbing most attention and capital, any altcoin rebound can be sharp but fragile. Until the daily indicators flip convincingly, the base case remains a cautious, sellertilted market with occasional relief rallies rather than a sustained bullish phase.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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