Standard Chartered Sees Year-End Bitcoin Rally Amid Sell-Off Signals

Bitcoin (BTC) is pulling back again after slipping below the $90,000 psychological level. Amid the ongoing recovery, Standard Chartered signals that the recent sell-off may have run its course.

Elsewhere, BitMine chairman Tom Lee says if the Bitcoin price manages to achieve a new all-time high this year, it would obviate the fact that there is a four-year cycle.

Bitcoin Set for Year-End Rally, Standard Chartered Says

In an email to clients, the bank’s Head of Digital Asset Research noted the recent pullback “is nothing more than a fast, painful version of the third one of the past couple of years.”

According to Geoff Kendrick, multiple on-chain metrics have reached absolute lows, including MicroStrategy’s mNAV, which is now at 1.0.

MicroStrategy mNAV. Source: Bitcoin Treasuries

“A rally into year-end is my base case,” Kendrick said in the email.

On-chain analyst Ali highlighted that Bitcoin’s realized loss margin currently stands at -16%, which is below the -12% threshold historically associated with rebounds.

Bitcoin $BTC usually rebounds when traders’ realized loss margin falls below -12%. It’s now sitting at -16%.

— Ali

Additionally, the SuperTrend indicator on the weekly chart, which has consistently flagged major trend shifts since 2014, recently flipped to sell mode. Past signals have resulted in declines averaging 61%, indicating potential near-term volatility.

“Applying that average to the current market structure points to a potential move toward $40,000,” the analyst stated.

These mixed signals reflect a market caught between historical corrective patterns and bullish expectations from major financial institutions.

Macro Context: Liquidity vs. Opportunity Cost

Despite a $7 trillion increase in global M2 money supply since late 2024, Bitcoin has struggled to capitalize on the liquidity surge fully. EndGame Macro explained that, while the global liquidity pool remains historically high, much of the capital is being absorbed by government debt issuance and short-term instruments that pay yields of 4–5%.

“The way I see it, liquidity is being taxed,” the analyst noted.

With risk-free alternatives yielding tangible returns, speculative assets like Bitcoin face a higher opportunity cost.

This dynamic has contributed to choppy trading, with sharp bounces when shorts get crowded and sudden drops triggered by macro jitters. This reflects a more cautious investor environment.

Bullish commentators argue Bitcoin’s current price reflects undervaluation, suggesting the cryptocurrency could reach $150,000 amid ongoing monetary expansion. Meanwhile, Skeptics say that the correlation between liquidity and BTC price is no longer straightforward, citing competing market forces and regulatory nudges toward safer assets.

Traders and investors should brace for continued volatility as leverage unwinds and macro positioning adjusts.

Standard Chartered’s forecast of a year-end rally hinges on the assumption that the sell-off has exhausted its momentum. Still, risks remain in the form of potential corrections or policy-induced market swings.

On-chain metrics, including realized loss margins and SuperTrend signals, will likely remain key indicators for timing entries and exits.

As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin could either rebound in line with institutional forecasts or continue trading as a volatile, non-yielding asset, amid a macro environment that increasingly rewards caution.

Investors must conduct their own research and watch both liquidity flows and policy signals to gauge the next leg of price action.